Hollidaysburg, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

871
FXUS61 KCTP 031129
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
729 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Dry with well-above average temperatures this weekend and
  into the beginning of next week.
* Cold frontal passage brings an increased chances for showers
  on Tuesday/Wednesday.
* Dry conditions probable later next week with low temperatures
  approaching the freezing mark.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure stationed across the northern Atlantic will
continue to supply dry conditions on Friday. The air mass across
central Pennsylvania remains fairly dry based on the 00Z
Observed Soundings at KPIT with the lowest dew point depressions
still sitting at ~5F as of 06Z/2am EDT observations. Given
these trends, have decided to nix any fog mentions across
central Pennsylvania for the Friday morning commute.
Scattered high-level clouds from Canada will gradually decrease
throughout the morning hours, trending towards widespread sunny
skies by the late morning/early afternoon. Relatively dry air
at 700mb is expected across mainly western Pennsylvania today
which could lead to slightly lower dew points west of the
Allegheny Front; however, recent RAP model soundings do outline
some potential for an inversion that could limit mixing at
BFD/JST this afternoon. Thus, have decided to roll with NBM in
the near- term with dew points remaining the main forecast
challenge this afternoon/early evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned high pressure influence is virtually certain
to continue into the short-term forecast period across all of
central Pennsylvania. Dry air aloft (~700mb) shows more promise
in mixing down during the daytime hours on Saturday and Sunday
given more expansive dry air and lower signals for a slight
inversion aloft. Current forecast keeps minimum RHs on Sat/Sun
in the 30-35% range across much of west- central Pennsylvania
with some areas in north- central Pennsylvania pushing much
closer (and potentially below) 30% RH Sunday afternoon. Given
the longer duration of dry conditions across portions of western
Pennsylvania and given the RH forecast, will need to continue
to monitor fire weather concerns going forward this weekend.
Winds are one good note with respect to fire weather concerns
with light winds expected on Saturday with winds slightly
elevated on Sunday as high pressure begins to drift further east
away from the forecast area.
Temperatures during the short-term period are expected (high
confidence) to trend well-above climatological averages for the
beginning of October. Temperatures at 850mb based on recent HREF
guidance are squarely in the 13-15C range on Saturday, with
recent ECMWF/GFS deterministic guidance showing modest agreement
in similar trends on Sunday. Based on model agreement and based
on model guidance remaining fairly persistent with respect to
these trends, high temperatures generally in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s seem plausible this weekend for much of central
Pennsylvania. For reference, climatological averages for the
beginning of October typically range from the lower 60s to lower
70s across central Pennsylvania.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry pattern throughout the short-term forecast period appears
to trend wetter with the approach of a surface low pressure from
the central US ejected northward into Ontario. Cold frontal
passage is progged to approach the area in the Tuesday/Wednesday
timeframe, bringing some (beneficial) rainfall to central
Pennsylvania. The bulk of GEFS ensemble plumes pain the forecast
area with anywhere from 0.25" to 0.75" of rainfall with the
frontal passage; however, still a fair amount of spread this far
out and plenty of time to hammer out the details. If current
trends continue, rainfall will be beneficial; however, little
relief in the way in terms of making up rainfall deficits over
the past 30/60/90 days.
Model guidance indicates that in the wake of the cold frontal
passage, transient high pressure begins to build into the Great
Lake region and settle just north of the area. This set-up would
allow for (another) spell of dry weather into the latter half
of the week. 850mb temperatures/anomalies begin to outline
cooler air making it into central Pennsylvania with this area of
high pressure; however, with current forecast outlining low
temperatures laster next week trending closer to the freezing
mark, which will bring in frost/freeze concerns into the latter
half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR flight conditions are certain (~100% confidence) through
the bulk of the 12Z TAF package under the influence oh high
pressure. The main concern aviation-wise will come in the
06Z-12Z Saturday timeframe with patchy fog formation across the
northern half of central Pennsylvania. Current guidance is less
bullish on fog formation similar to previous evenings, thus
have decided to leave any mentions out of the 12Z TAFs. Despite
this, still want to highlight fog potential with less (high)
cloud coverage compared to previous evenings.
Outlook...
Sat-Tue...AM Fog (Mainly N PA); otherwise, VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NPB
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...NPB
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...NPB

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion