Holloway Park, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

891
FXUS62 KMHX 280704
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
304 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Active pattern through the period with stalled front and
incoming tropical moisture leading to a wet few days ahead of
potential impacts from offshore Hurricane Humberto and Tropical
Depression 9. Also expecting a prolonged period of strong
northeasterly winds as high pressure looks to build in from the
north by about mid week with the tropical systems to the south
and east.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Dreary and muggy morning across ENC today as a
slow moving front gradually pushes east across the area. Kept
some patchy fog and SChc PoP`s in the forecast for the next few
hours before things clear out inland with precip chances then
concentrating along the coast and offshore around daybreak.
Very warm for this time of year with lows in the upper 60s
interior to low 70s coast.
As we get into the day today, forecast calls for upper level
cutoff low just to the west to retrograde into the Tennessee
River Valley while a weak jet streak extends over the
Carolinas. At the mid levels, much of the shortwave energy
associated with the cutoff low should remain off to the west. As
a result, will have a stalling front noted around the
coast/just offshore today promoting precip chances along the
coast and OBX with drier conditions noted inland this morning.
Precip chances then spread inland with local sea/sound breezes
helping to initiate additional showers during the afternoon,
though with a lack of strong forcing generally capped precip
chances at SChc to Chc well inland and Chc to likely along the
coast. Not expecting much of a thunder threat today either given
winds become NE to E`rly behind the stalling front. Any flood
threat will be very low due to lack of substantial convergence
of shower activity. Highs will generally be around 80 with
continue mo cloudy to overcast skies. With ample cloud cover and
onshore flow expected today high get into the upper 70s to near
80 across ENC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sun... Yet another lull in precip chances likely
occurs at the start of the overnight period as light NE to E`rly
flow persists across ENC. Even without much precip, low and mid
level stratus will be prevalent tonight as tropical moisture
from TD 9 begins to stream into ENC from the south. Precip
chances do begin to increase as a result of this tropical
moisture close to day break along the coast. Otherwise light
winds and temps in the upper 60s to low 70s are forecast
tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sun...
Key Messages:
- TD 9 and distant Hurricane Humberto are expected to bring
   impacts to the area over the next several days.
Cold front will be offshore Mon as tropical moisture continues
to stream in over the area. Scattered to numerous showers and
iso thunderstorms expected, with main concern again the
potential for locally heavy rain and a localized flood threat.
Two tropical cyclones will impact the region this coming week.
Hurricane Humberto is expected to remain well offshore, though
long period swell energy from this system will begin to impact
the waters Monday, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday. Then Tropical
Depression Nine is forecast to strengthen into a TS and then a
Hurricane as it lifts N-NNW approaching the SE coast early next
week. NHC`s official forecast has TD9 strengthening as it moves
Nward offshore of the East Coast of FL Mon and reaching
hurricane strength by Tuesday morning while E of the FL/GA
coast. From there, forecast confidence decreases a bit and
therefore some uncertainty in the track of this system remains
with how it will interact with Humberto and weak steering
currents. The official track takes it Eward from Tuesday into
Thursday. The key message right now is both systems are
expected to bring some level of impacts to the area, though
specifics remain uncertain at this time.
Tropical moisture will be spreading over the area, and swell
will be increasing. Above normal precip chances expected, with
the potential for periods of moderate to heavy rain...however if
the system remains more suppressed to the south then rainfall
chances may trend downward. Coastal impacts also expected (see
section below for more details). Will continue to monitor for
specifics.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 245 AM Sun...Isolated to widely scattered showers are
currently noted across the Coastal Plain this morning and this
should continue over the next few hours with drier conditions
then expected for the most part across our inland zones later
this morning. Additional and more concentrated precip chances
will likely extend along the coast starting towards day break
with this activity then pushing NW`wards through the afternoon
today. Don`t think there will be a significant thunder threat
today so have limited any precip mention to showers with precip
potentially starting as early as 7-10Z along the coast and left
any VCSH/PROB30 mention of precip until after 18Z today across
PGV/ISO and surrounding areas. Otherwise after looking at
guidance, went slightly more optimistic with the forecast
keeping ceilings and vis a mix of VFR/MVFR across the area over
the next few hours before low stratus and patchy fog spread
SE`wards towards day break. In addition to this did limit amount
of potential time ceilings fall below 500 ft at all TAF sites
as well and may still be too aggressive with the forcast so some
amendments may be needed later this morning. Otherwise
generally expect MVFR cigs to over spread the area from PGV/ISO
between now and 08Z first and then extend to EWN/OAJ between
07-10Z next. Could see a brief period mainly between 09Z-12Z of
IFR/LIFR ceilings across all TAF sites before MVFR ceilings
return through about midday. Then by about 2PM all sites should
be VFR with the potential for sub-VFR conditions to return Sun
night.
LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sun...
Key Messages
- Unsettled pattern will bring unfavorable flying conditions to
   ENC through mid week.
Periods of sub-VFR conditions expected through the period, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, best chances
Monday into Tuesday. Widespread IFR/MVFR cigs will be possible
Monday into Monday night, possibly lingering into Tue. TD 9 is
forecast to strengthen into a TS then a Hurricane as it lifts
along the SE coast the next few days. While the center of the
storm is currently expected to remain south and offshore, the
gradient between this system and the high pressure to the north
could bring breezy NE winds Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 230 AM Sun... Slow moving cold front will finally make
its approach and eventually stall over our waters today
continuing to bring showers and embedded thunderstorms to our
waters into tonight with the potential for a brief reprieve
from this activity this evening. SW`rly winds at 5-10 kts will
quickly shift to the north and then northeast this morning as
the aforementioned front eventually gets to our waters and
stalls. Winds will then remain NE to E`rly at 5-10 kts through
the day before increasing slightly to 10-15 kts as the gradient
tightens some between TD 9 to the south and a ridge of high
pressure building in from the north. Seas generally remain
around 2-4 ft through the entire period.
LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sun...
Key Message
- Dangerous marine conditions expected through the period,
   with two tropical cyclones impacting the waters
Two tropical cyclones will impact the waters this coming week.
Hurricane Humberto is expected to remain well offshore, though
long period swell energy from this system will begin to impact
the waters Monday, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, TD9 is
forecast to strengthen into a TS and then a Hurricane as it
lifts N-NNW approaching the SE coast early next week. There is
some uncertainty in the track of this system due to forecast
complications with how it will interact with Humberto and weak
steering currents. The official NHC forecast track shows TD9
moving towards the SE coast then pushing eastward back offshore,
but as noted in NHC`s discussions over the past few days, track
forecast after Tuesday morning is low confidence with potential
for the system to stall near or along the SE coast for several
days as steering currents collapse.
Strong high pressure to the north and TD9 to the south will
keep a strong pressure gradient over the waters, with NE-E winds
increasing to 15-25 kt, then 20-35 kt through the week along
with building seas (10-15 ft) by Tuesday as swell from Humberto
peaks. Seas expected to remain elevated, potentially increasing
further into late-week as TD9 approaches the coast, potentially
building seas to 15-20 ft for offshore waters.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 AM Sun...Long period swell from distant Humberto is
forecast to begin arriving at ENC beaches as early as late
tonight/early Monday morning, then peak Tuesday and Wednesday.
Swell impacts are expected to last much of the upcoming week (in
combo with TD9), which include dangerous rip currents, large
breaking waves, and the potential for ocean overwash, coastal
flooding and wave runup impacts. As well as the swell impacting
the coast, a period of strong NEerly/onshore winds associated
with a cold front and building high pressure in its wake may
heighten impacts along the coast, while also increasing the risk
for water level rises on the inside, including areas adjacent
to the Pamlico Sound and along the Neuse mid to late week. We
may also see low water level concerns for Nern sounds. Stay
tuned through the week for updates on the areas of greatest
impact, and the magnitude of those impacts.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...RCF/CQD
MARINE...RCF/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion