Holly Ridge, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

414
FXUS62 KMHX 051837
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
237 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide quiet weather for the majority of the
CWA through Saturday, although a stalled boundary offshore will
bring a low-end chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the coast tomorrow. A cold front will move through the area
Saturday night, bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm
chances to the area on Sunday. High pressure will build in late
this weekend into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1 PM Friday...The upper low will continue to churn over
southern Canada today with broad troughing extending across the
eastern US. This low will move to the north a little, which will
allow heights to increase over the Carolinas. At the surface,
offshore high pressure is extending west over the area. Although
the mid and upper levels will remain fairly dry today,
southwest flow in the low levels will reinstate some moisture
into the column. The increasing heights aloft, mostly sunny
skies outside of some diurnal cu, and an increase in moisture
will work together to create a warm and muggy summer-like day
across ENC with high temps in the low-90s across the coastal
plain and mid-80s along the coast. The seabreeze may be able to
squeeze out a few isolated showers this afternoon/evening, but a
lack of moisture above the surface should keep them shallow and
short-lived at best.
Tonight will be mild with lows hovering a couple of degrees either
side of 70. The bigger story tonight/early tomorrow morning
will be the potential for fog and low stratus, which has trended
more pessimistic today. Fog and low stratus will be possible
across the CWA but most likely across the inner coastal plain
and southwestern zones where areas of dense fog may develop
early tomorrow morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 1:25 PM Friday...Fog and low stratus may linger a couple
of hours past sunrise tomorrow morning with greatest cloud cover
hanging on near the coast.
Tomorrow will be the transition point in the forecast when conditions
start to become slightly more unsettled. The upper low will
continue to move north, allowing heights to increase across the
area again. At the surface, a cold front will approach the area
from the west while a weak offshore low will ride northeast
along a stalled boundary roughly parallel to the southeast
coast. Low level moisture will be increasing, so cloud cover
will be greater than we`ve had over the past several days
(greatest along the coast). The cold front isn`t forecast to
enter our western counties until tomorrow night, but the stalled
boundary offshore may support a few scattered showers with an
isolated rumble of thunder along the immediate coast in the
morning. Precip chances along the coast will continue into the
afternoon and evening given additional forcing from the
seabreeze, but the coastal plain is expected to remain dry.
Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the low-90s
across the coastal plain and mid-80s at the beaches. Given the
increase in moisture, however, it`ll feel slightly more humid.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Fri...
Key Messages
- Cooler and unsettled late this weekend into next week
The front will move through Saturday night into early Sunday.
Ahead of the front Saturday, moist SSW flow will allow for temps
to warm into the low 90s inland and mid/upper 80s along the
coast. Isolated showers and storms will be possible Sat night.
High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and early next
week. Weak wedge looks to set up behind the front into next
week, as front lingers offshore (waves developing along it) and
potential coastal troughing, which would give way to NE flow,
more clouds than sun and increased shower chances...with best
chances along the coast. Best chances for scattered showers and
storms will be Sunday afternoon and evening. High temps will
fall back into the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s-70
deg. Another front will approach the area late week.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Saturday/...
As of 1:45 PM Friday...Confidence is high for VFR conditions to
continue for the rest of the daylight hours. There`s potential
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NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion