Holly Ridge North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

640
FXUS62 KMHX 080800
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
400 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front tracks across the region this evening and tonight.
High pressure builds to the north behind the cold front to end
the work week, while a coastal storm forms off the coast this
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday...
A cold front, currently progressing east through the Ohio and
TN Valleys, is expected to reach ENC later this afternoon or
this evening. Southerly low-mid level flow ahead of the front
should allow PWATs to rise to 1.5-2.0" through the day. The
strongest forcing aloft is expected to remain north of ENC.
However, the combination of increasing moisture, weak
instability, and modest low- level convergence should allow a
broken band of showers and thunderstorms to develop and progress
south and east through ENC during the afternoon/evening hours.
A modest mid-upper level jet encroaching on the area will lead
to deep layer shear increasing to around 30kt around the time of
peak heating/destabilization. Modest forcing, weak instability,
and weak low-level lapse rates should keep the risk of strong
to severe thunderstorms low. However, machine learning and
probabilistic guidance suggest the risk isn`t zero. It appears
that strong wind gusts will be the primary risk. This may
especially be the case as some stronger winds aloft begin to
develop across the area right along the advancing cold front.
Any showers or thunderstorms right along the front may be able
to mix down some of the strengthening winds aloft.
Temperature-wise, southerly flow ahead of the front should
support one final day of above-normal conditions across the area
prior to the passage of the cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday...
A cold front will be surging south through ENC this evening and
tonight, pushing offshore by midnight. Any lingering showers or
thunderstorms should quickly diminish behind the front from
north to south. Moderate to strong CAA behind the front will
send temperatures quickly falling through the 60s, bottoming out
in the 50s for most areas away from the coast. The front is
expected to be accompanied by a period of gusty winds (strongest
along the OBX).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Wed...
Thursday...Cooler, drier, and breezier conditions in wake of
fropa on Thu. The northeasterly winds combined with king tides
(high astronomical tides) may bring minor coastal flooding
beginning Thursday (see coastal flood section below). Otherwise
very pleasant conditions return with highs back down into the
low 70s, which is several degrees below climo for the second
week of Oct. Skies become mostly sunny again with high pres
nosing down from the Northeast. With the much drier air mass in
place, Thu night will shape up to be the coolest night of the
fall thus far, with favored cool spots away from the coast
potentially reaching around 50. Much warmer on the beaches in
vicinity of the still-warm waters, with lows in the low/mid 60s.
Friday..Transistion day between high pres to the north and
developing low off the FL coast with the cold front stalled to
the south. Northeast breezes will slacken some, with temps
similar to Thu as inc cloud cover keeps max T`s in the 70s.
Milder temps Fri night with inc cloud cover, with lows in the
upper 50s interior to mid 60s coast.
Saturday through Tuesday...Impactful coastal storm expected
this weekend into early next week. The aforementioned low off FL
will lift northwards and be positioned off the Carolina coast
this weekend. Warm waters and lack of steering flow may allow
the forecasted coastal low to sit over warm offshore waters and
strengthen rapidly. While confidence is high in this coastal
storm off the coast, strength, exact location, and timing
impacts are still up in the air. Again, see Coastal Flooding
section for possible impact scenarios from this coastal storm.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Thursday/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday...
Key Messages
- MVFR conditions possible overnight
 - TSRA possible Wednesday afternoon and evening
 - Wind shift with gusty N/NE winds behind a front Wednesday
   evening
A moist southerly flow and modest low-level convergence should
continue to support isolated SHRA development into early
Wednesday morning. The risk of TSRA appears low during this time
(196-199-203.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Monday
     morning for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ131-150-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ135-137-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Thursday for AMZ156-158.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion