Holt, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

236
FXUS64 KBMX 052337
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
637 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
Surface analysis depicts a cold front to our northwest, extending
from North Texas through the Ohio Valley. This boundary will push
southeast through the day, moving into Central Alabama overnight
into Saturday morning. Moisture pooling across the region will
allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of
this boundary. Greatest chances (30-50%) tonight and Saturday
morning will be across our northern areas with the threat
extending further south through the day Saturday. Much of this
activity will be east of us by the evening hours. However, we
could see a few lingering showers through the evening as moisture
remains elevated and a trailing H85 vort max swings through. The
much drier air arrives through the day Sunday as the H85 front
passes through.
We will have one last hot day today with highs climbing into the
mid 90s for most. We knock off a handful of degrees tomorrow with
highs in the 80s. A few may not get out of the 70s across our
northwest areas...depending on how fast the front arrives.
95/Castillo
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
No significant changes needed with this long term forecast update.
Drier air in place behind tomorrow`s cold front will leave us
"cooler" through the week with highs generally in the 80s with
lows in the 60s. We could see a isolated shower or two across our
southeastern areas next week as moisture begins to return.
However, without much forcing, not expecting too much activity.
95/Castillo
Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
The extended will be mostly warm and dry across Central Alabama
during the afternoons, with highs in the mid to upper 80s through
Thursday. Lows will be a refreshing upper 50s to mid 60s, depending
on location. Some rain and storms appear to be possible across the
far southeast, south of I-85, at least a couple days during the
week. However, confidence on the northward extent of this is
currently low, as most activity will be closer to the Gulf Coast.
For now, no rain chances are mentioned in the forecast for any of
Central Alabama from Sunday through Thursday.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
A cold front will move into the area during this TAF cycle,
bringing 1 to 2 rounds of at least scattered showers and storms.
The first (lower confidence) round may impact the northern
terminals between ~5z and ~10z. The second round has somewhat
higher confidence but still not enough to include more than a
PROB30 mention. This round will generally be between 15z and 00z
Saturday, earlier for the northern terminals and later for the
southern terminals. There are also medium chances for MVFR cigs
around mid-morning at the northern terminals. Winds will become
northwesterly around 6-8kts as the front passes.
32/JDavis
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Min RH values will range from 35-45% this afternoon and 40-55%
Saturday afternoon across Central Alabama, with chances for isolated
to scattered showers across the area through this afternoon. Rain
chances increase tonight through Saturday afternoon, especially
across northern and central counties. Behind the front, min RHs
through the week will be as low as 35%, with a drier airmass
working in. While no critical thresholds will be met, the area
will be dry from Sunday through Thursday, potentially increasing
fire concerns in that aspect, especially in areas that receive
little to no rain this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  86  62  83 /  20  60   0   0
Anniston    70  86  64  82 /  10  40   0   0
Birmingham  72  86  64  83 /  30  50   0   0
Tuscaloosa  72  87  65  84 /  30  40   0   0
Calera      72  89  65  84 /  20  40   0   0
Auburn      72  89  68  85 /   0  20   0   0
Montgomery  72  91  68  88 /   0  20   0   0
Troy        71  91  68  88 /   0  20   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...32/JDavis

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion