Honey Brook Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

335
FXUS61 KPHI 112002
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
402 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will affect the region tonight through early
next week bringing significant impacts to parts of our area.
Improving conditions expected by Tuesday as the storm weakens
and moves out to sea. High pressure will begin building back
into the region during the middle to end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
***Significant impacts possible from a strong coastal storm  Sunday
through Monday***
As of 11 AM this morning, the coastal low about 180 miles off the
South Carolina coast was a closed low with a central pressure less
than 1004 mb. This is going to be the start of the coastal low
impacts for our region through Monday. This low and potentially a
second surface low (more on that in the next paragraph) will bring
tidal/coastal flood, wind, and rain impacts to our region through the
near term period.
What has changed: Most notably, a majority of the main deterministic
models are now depicting a double barreled low solution. These
solutions show a second surface low developing closer to Long Island
as the northern upper level trough approaches. The net result of
this for our area could be lower total rain amounts, and wind
impacts more confined to the coast. As we get closer, have increase
confidence to change the high wind watch to a high wind warning (for
Cape May and the rest of the coastal strip) and wind advisory (for
inland portions of Sussex Co Delaware, Inland Atlantic Co, SE
Burlington Co, Inland Ocean Co, and Inland Monmouth Co in NJ.
Hazards: For more information on the tidal/coastal flood hazards and
marine navigation hazards, please see the Tides/coastal flooding and
marine sections below.
Wind...As mentioned above, it is looking more likely with the latest
guidance that the stronger winds will be confined closer to the
coast. Consequently changed the watch to a combination of high wind
warning (for the coastal strip, plus all of Cape May County), and
wind advisory for the remainder of what was in the watch area. The
main period of impact looks to be from 15Z/11AM EDT tomorrow through
Sunday night.
Rain...Didn`t make any significant changes with the rain amounts
with this forecast. The current forecast is pretty much in the
middle of guidance, but given the uncertainty with the double
barreled low solutions, there is a wide range of rain amount
guidance for an event that will essentially happen within the next
48 hours. Current forecast is for 0.75 to 2 inches for inland
locations and 1 to 3 inches for coastal areas. All that being said,
with how long of a duration the rain is falling, the
freshwater/rainfall flooding threat is limited. However, minor
flooding in poor drainage areas is possible, and there remains a
concern that the rain will exacerbate tidal/coastal flooding impacts.
Timing: We`ve seen the first few showers with this system already
today. However, the main rain shield won`t start to move into our
region until late tonight, with the bulk of the rain falling from
early Sunday morning through the day on Tuesday. As for winds, the
main period of concern is from late Sunday morning through Sunday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions look to begin to improve Monday night as the initial
low looks to weaken but with the potential double barrel
solution and a secondary low developing, periods of light rain
and gusty winds will continue through much of the overnight
hours.
Through Tuesday, the remaining low will begin to shift further
away, leaving just breezy conditions (highest gusts around 20-30
mph along the coast) as well as a few lingering showers near
the coast. The low will push out to sea by Tuesday night with
dry conditions across the region and a gradual clearing of skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad high pressure will build across the Great Lakes region
from the middle of next week through the end of the long term
period and extend out over our region. As a result, the forecast
for next Wednesday through Saturday is currently dry across the
whole region. Wednesday could remain relatively mild before CAA
ramps up with northwest flow as the high approaches. The cooler
airmass will arrive by the end of the week, with below normal
temperatures anticipated for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
may begin to moderate on Saturday as the mid-level northwest
flow weakens.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of Today...Mainly MVFR conditions continue with showers and
lower ceilings continuing to overspread the area. Brief
improvements to VFR remain possible this afternoon between
showers. Winds east to northeast 10 kts, stronger at KACY.
Moderate confidence.
Tonight...Predominately MVFR conditions expected with more rain
overspreading the area, especially by late tonight. Northeast winds
will also increase closer to 15 knots with gusts up to 20-25
kts, higher at KACY. Moderate confidence.
Sunday through Monday...MVFR to IFR conditions expected with
moderate to heavy rain moving through and gusty winds. Northeast
wind gusts near 45 kt possible at KACY. Gusts out of the
northeast around 25-35 kt expected at the I-95 terminals and
KMIV, with 20-30 kt anticipated within the Lehigh Valley.
Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Monday Night...Restrictions expected with showers and low
clouds. Wind gusts diminish to around 15-25 kt out of the
north/northeast.
Tuesday...Conditons improve but sub-VFR conditions possible
with lingering showers and clouds. Wind gusts could get near 20
kt at times.
Wednesday and Thursday..VFR with no significant weather.
&&
.MARINE...
No changes made at this point to the marine hazards. Easterly winds
and waves will continue to increase. Late Saturday night, expect
winds to shift out of the northeast and increase further. The
strongest winds are expected during the day on Sunday continuing
through Sunday Evening before gradually subsiding. Still expecting
storm force winds on the lower Delaware Bay and the Atlantic coastal
waters. For the upper Delaware Bay, expect gale conditions.
Dangerous seas upward of 15 to 20 feet expected. Periods of moderate
to heavy rain and sea spray restricting visibility at times.
Outlook...
Monday night through Thursday...Conditions will begin to
improve as the storm weakens and begins to move away. However,
gale force winds may linger through Tuesday and elevated seas
above 5 feet may linger through Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
We`ll continue with the Coastal Flood Advisories for the next tide
cycle before the larger event for Sunday. The latest numbers for the
upcoming tide were similar to previous fcst, so saw no need for any
major changes. Either low-end minor tidal flooding or just below
that is expected this evening and into the overnight.
Meanwhile, there is an increasing risk of moderate to major
coastal flooding impacts beginning Sunday through Monday as a
strong coastal storm impacts the region. Guidance still varies
in potential outcomes of this storm with regard to severity of
coastal flood impacts locally, however we remain very concerned
about the potential for significant impacts from this storm
along our coasts. At this time, the greatest threat of impacts
are anticipated to occur along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey
and Delaware, and Delaware Bay. Confidence has increased enough
such that we`ve upgraded the Coastal Flood Watch to a Warning
Sunday through Monday.
Severe beach erosion and dune breaching are possible along the
entire New Jersey Shore and for Delaware beaches due to the very
high surf conditions that are expected. Interests along the
Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, back bays, and tidal waterways
should remain alert for forecast updates regarding this
potentially significant coastal flood event.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Monday
     for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 9 PM EDT Monday for
     NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ021>025.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for NJZ013-
     020-022-027.
     High Wind Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     NJZ014-023>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Monday
     for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 9 PM EDT Monday for
     DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     DEZ002>004.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for DEZ003.
     High Wind Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ430.
     Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ431-450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AKL
NEAR TERM...Johnson
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL
MARINE...AKL/Johnson
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...OHara

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion