Hoover Dam Park, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

870
FXUS61 KILN 191000
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
600 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue through Saturday with low rain chances
possible Sunday into early next week. Above normal temperatures are
expected through early next week before a wetter and cooler pattern
develops toward the middle and end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A stagnant weather pattern remains entrenched across the Ohio
Valley, particularly through the near and short term periods as
midlevel ridging provides dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
Temps in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees at daybreak will top out in
the upper 80s to near 90 degrees late afternoon amidst plentiful
sunshine. A few afternoon Cu are expected once again, but sunny to
mostly sunny skies will prevail.
Min RH values will dip to around 25-30% mid to late afternoon,
particularly in WC OH, EC/SE IN through SW OH and N/NE KY. But light
and VRB winds around 5kts should inhibit fire spread concerns.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Although from a sensible weather perspective, more of the same is on
tap for the short term period, the overall weather pattern will begin
to change as we progress into this weekend. For tonight, mid/high
level moisture will advect in with the approach of a negatively-
tilted (but flattening) trough, providing some thicker cirrus into
the day Saturday. A few diurnally-driven afternoon Cu are also
expected beneath the canopy of cirrus amidst continued dry LL air in
the ILN FA. LL flow will also slowly become a bit more southerly,
particularly into Saturday night, marking the beginning of a
prolonged stretch of better LL moisture into the region.
Temps tonight dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s from E to W,
respectively, before rebounding into the upper 80s area-wide by
Saturday afternoon. Minimum RH values around 30% are expected again
late Saturday afternoon prior to the onset of better LL moisture
advection into the area by Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
H5 ridge continues to nudge eastward through the latter half of the
weekend. This will open the door for a shortwave through to swing
through the Midwest region on Sunday, resulting in chances for rain
across our fa. PoPs will trend higher towards our western CWA, which
will be in closer proximity to this upper level energy. The NBM did
show a bit of a jump in PoPs for Sunday afternoon given the more
eastward progression of this shortwave that model guidance is
showing. A more robust shortwave trough will eject through the
region on Monday, resulting in higher PoPs across the entire CWA,
with a trend towards likely PoPs already for some of our northern
counties.
Global models continue to show an impressive longwave H5 trough
carving through the central CONUS during the early to middle part of
next week. The east-west extent of this trough will influence the
weather pattern in our CWA by ushering in a more humid air mass.
However, the higher humidity will also result in greater cloud
coverage and episodic rain chances, which will reduce daytime highs
but also result in milder overnight lows.
The pattern will certainly become more unsettled next week with
multiple days of rainfall expected. However, details in the synoptic
pattern remain a bit murky as the potential for a cut-off upper low
exists, which could prolong this humid, cloudy and wet pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with a very dry
air mass still in place. The only exception will be some brief MVFR
VSBY (low confidence in IFR) possible due to BR at KLUK around
sunrise Saturday.
A few VFR Cu are expected once again this afternoon, with light/VRB
winds generally 5kts or less through the period. Winds will gradually
become more out of the SE at around 5kts into the daytime Saturday.
Thickening cirrus will overspread the region from the W toward the
end of the period.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ070-071-077-078.
     Air Quality Alert until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056-
     065.
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ091>093.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion