Hooversville, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

632
FXUS61 KCTP 091828
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
228 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* A mainly dry, seasonable weather pattern is expected to
  continue into next week
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Late this afternoon, regional satellite imagery shows clear
skies across much of the Commonwealth, with an open cellular
cumulus field edging into southeast PA on low-level easterly
flow.
This pattern will hold into tonight, as easterly flow in the
boundary layer is expected to advect a marine layer environment
into parts of the Mid-Atlantic, including southeast and parts of
south-central PA. At this vantage point, we expect an associated
lower cloud deck and perhaps patchy light rain/drizzle to push
as far inland as parts of the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
Elsewhere, mainly clear skies should continue, with patchy
river valley fog, particularly near and north of I-80.
Although we`ll radiate efficiently once again, slight air mass
modification should result in overnight lows being several
degrees above those of last night. Thus, we expect little to no
frost formation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the day is expected to start with lower cloud
cover over southeast and parts of south-central PA, with mostly
clear skies and patchy valley fog elsewhere. Since an offshore
surface wave is expected to move farther off the coast with
time, morning stratus clouds should have a tendency to gradually
break up from west to east by early-mid afternoon.
A drying air mass and sinking motion just above the boundary
layer is expected to settle across the Commonwealth Wednesday
night and Thursday, resulting in mostly clear/sunny skies. Areas
of river valley fog should develop again late Wednesday night
into early Thursday.
A dry, seasonable air mass will continue to support 70s to near
80 for daytime highs, with upper 30s (coldest northern valleys)
to around 50 (parts of southern PA) at night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems continue to
indicate a fairly blocky upper-level pattern into next week,
with a mean upper ridge axis through the central CONUS and
south-central Canada, with a general weakness in the upper
height fields across the upper Great Lakes and the northeastern
states. Despite the troughy nature of the upper levels over PA,
a very dry air mass overall (thanks to confluent NW flow aloft
promoting surface high pressure development) points to a high
likelihood of continued rain-free conditions for the
Commonwealth.
Looking at the latest cluster analyses in DESI, an earlier
"split scenario" (relatively equal weighting/probabilities of a more
amplified wave and better rain chances for PA vs. an open,
progressive, farther north evolution with less rain chances for
PA) with handling of an upstream short-wave coming into the
Great Lakes region Sunday-Monday is trending towards more
weighting/higher probabilities for the latter/drier scenario.
Thus, NBM POPs have reasonably edged lower for the end of the
weekend into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR conds were observed across central PA at 18z
Tuesday. VFR conds will continue into this evening and the
early overnight hours.
Eventually, the easterly flow off the Atlantic should bring
some low clouds into the Lower Susq Valley overnight. The HREF
model suggests a 70+% probability of LNS and MDT seeing cigs dip
to MVFR.
Farther to the west, where skies remain mainly clear, we could
see valley fog develop in the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday. Have
hinted at this possibility by adding VCFG to the TAFs for BFD,
IPT, UNV and AOO.
Fog should dissipate fairly quickly after sunrise on Wednesday.
However, any low clouds over the Lower Susq Valley may be
slower to budge on Wednesday and MVFR cigs could persist into
the late morning or early afternoon hours.
Outlook...
Thu-Sun...Predominantly VFR. Morning valley fog possible.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Tyburski
AVIATION...Evanego

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion