Hopewell Cemetery Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

221
FXUS63 KICT 140137
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
837 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers will continue into tonight; additional showers
  possible across central KS Tuesday
- Dry and mild conditions for midweek
- Rain chances return for late week into the weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Went ahead and updated to insert fog for western portions of the
forecast area.
Current thinking is that the best chance for fog will be for
areas generally west of I-135 where cooler temps are helping low
levels saturate quicker. Already seeing KGBD and KPTT go down to
3sm with KHUT likely the next site to go down. Not out of the
question that a dense fog advisory could eventually be needed.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
As of 2 PM Monday afternoon, broad southwest midlevel flow remains
across the central Plains with deep troughing across the western
CONUS and ridging within the MS valley. The strong front that
progressed through central KS has stalled from northern OK through
east central KS. A notable temperature gradient is evident across
the state with 50s across central KS to 70s across southeast KS.
Modest midlevel WAA continues to produce widely scattered showers
across central, south-central and southeast KS. The axis of WAA will
gradually shift north through the overnight hours with rain chances
diminishing from south to north. The most notable change with this
forecast package is the introduction of rain chances across central
KS Tuesday as a subtle midlevel shortwave trough moves from the
southern high Plains into west-central KS. The associated cloud
debris will keep temperatures much cooler with highs expected to top
out in the 60s across central KS. Mostly sunny skies across
southeast KS will allow temperatures to return into the 80s Tuesday
afternoon.
Transitioning beyond Tuesday, midlevel heights will amplify and
retrograde across the lower Plains. This will push rain chances
north and west of the area for Wednesday and Thursday. An intense
midlevel shortwave trough will eject into the northern
Rockies/Plains late Thursday into Thursday night. This will shunt a
surface trough axis towards central KS by Friday morning. While the
best shower/storm chances will generally remain north of the
forecast area and closer to the main shortwave trough axis, a few
showers/storms are possible late Thursday through the weekend.
Mid/long range guidance (EC/GFS) remain aligned with another
potent shortwave trough emerging from the southern Rockies early
next week. This system may have sufficient instability/shear
for a strong/severe storm potential.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Main aviation concerns will be lowering ceilings along with
rain chances.
Stationary front currently extends from near KCNU to just south
of KICT and should remain in this same general location through
much of the night. MVFR cigs have recently developed for areas
along and west of I-135 and am currently expecting IFR cigs to
develop in the next few hours for locations west of I-135,
affecting mostly KGBD-KHUT-KRSL. Front will start to lift north
around sunrise and will allow low cigs to also lift north. So by
around 12z, VFR cigs should be moving into KICT. Low clouds are
expected to stick around the longest across central KS(KRSL-
KGBD) and will not clear until early Tue afternoon.
Scattered showers will persist early this evening across mainly
central and southeast KS but will not have much of an impact on
visibilities. Still not looking for any thunder with this
activity.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RBL
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...RBL

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion