Horseshoe Reservoir Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

093
FXUS65 KPIH 151934
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
134 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers with a few thunderstorms today, lingering
  into Thursday especially along and east of Interstate 15.
- Nearly all snow accumulation will remain above about 7,000
  feet, with limited travel impacts possible at a few passes.
- Drier weather for most of southeast Idaho Friday and Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Amplified trough remains in place over the Intermountain West
today with closed low centered over southern NV/UT, per
satellite imagery. Radar indicates widespread rainfall, some
moderate to locally heavy with a few embedded thunderstorms
working north through the region. Snow levels remain above 7000
ft, with a few impacts remaining possible at pass level. Upper
trough slowly transitions east through tonight, bringing upper
flow around to the north, essentially rotating the bands of
showers back through the region. Snow totals through tonight
have moderated slightly with the most recent model data, but
high end probabilistic amounts still reach 6-10" above pass
level. Precipitation shifts to the eastern half of the forecast
area during the day Thursday, with the persistent showers coming
to an end during the evening. Cooler temperatures follow
Thursday night, with lows dropping to around freezing for many
lower elevation areas. As the growing season has concluded, no
further Frost or Freeze headlines will be issued until Spring.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Friday will feature conditions gradually improving across the area
as high pressure once again builds over the region, albeit briefly.
Will likely see some lingering clouds for the first part of the day
along with maybe some isolated/scattered precip chances in the
eastern highlands during the afternoon and evening hours; otherwise,
most of the region should be dry. Dry weather will continue into
Saturday regionwide with temperatures remaining on the cooler side
of normal. Sunday looks to be the warmest day in the extended with
60s likely in the lower elevations as winds increase out of the S/SW
ahead of an approaching upper level trough that will swing through
the region during the overnight and into the first part of the day
on Monday. When this happens, expect clouds and precip chances to
increase across the area Sunday evening and for a good part of the
day on Monday with MUCH cooler temps looking increasingly likely for
the day on Monday. Highs look likely to only top out in the 40s on
Monday throughout the area with widespread cloud cover and precip in
the forecast. Once again, expect some high elevation snow with this
feature, likely above 6000 ft. This system is forecast to be a quick
mover however and will likely be well east of the area by daybreak
Tuesday. The upper flow will remain out of the NW though which will
keep cooler air in place Tuesday and into Wednesday, about 5-10
degrees below normal, but those days do appear that they`ll be dry
at the present time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Widespread clouds in place across the region this afternoon along
with gradually increasing rainfall coverage. As such, CIGs will
likely bounce between very low end VFR to IFR throughout the period
with the mostly likely outcome somewhere in between with BKN/OVC
CIGs around 2kft feet or so. Precip intensity will also vary at
times so VSBYs are hard to forecast especially with the current gaps
in radar data which hopefully will be resolved soon. Expect mainly
MVFR conditions through sunrise tomorrow with off an on
precipitation. Winds will remain light however outside of any
thunderstorms, which are possible but chances seem quite low. CIGs
will begin to improve from west to east throughout the day tomorrow,
namely at KSUN and KBYI and then into the remaining terminals by the
end of the day tomorrow but it`ll probably take awhile at KPIH, KIDA
and KDIJ before we see much in the way of improvement.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Periods of wetting rains and high-elevation snow will continue
today and tonight, lingering Thursday especially along and east
of Interstate 15 (but overall ending from west to east over the
course of the day). Drier conditions will briefly take hold for
Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...01

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion