Hosford, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

227
FXUS62 KTAE 251751
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
151 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Isolated showers and thunderstorms gradually move east/ northeast
across the CWA for the rest of the day and into tonight as a cold
front approaches. There will be pockets of heavy rain associated
with these storms and strong wind gusts are possible today.
Background winds will be breezy and flow out of the southwest,
with values around 10kts this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The cold front slowly moves east across the CWA and continues to
bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. Maximum temperatures,
and heat indicies, begin to lower starting Friday with the
passage of this cold front. The front brings in lots of cloud
cover this weekend, preventing the temperature from rising; expect
to see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s as a result.
QPF is generally around 0.5-1 inch across the CWA, with isolated
higher amounts up to 3 inches, mostly along the coast of the
Panhandle. There are minimal concerns for flooding with this
frontal system due to how dry the region has been the last several
weeks; the ground will be able to absorb most of the rainfall. In
fact, this rain will be beneficial to the drought. There is not
much of a concern for anything severe with this system, although
wind gusts of up to 40kts are possible on Friday. By Saturday
evening, The front will be exiting the CWA, and PoPs drop
significantly.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Cooler and drier air is expected in wake of the frontal system.
Northerly/northeasterly flow prevails and little to no rain is
expected through Wednesday. Minimal cloud cover is expected during
this period. As a result, temperatures slowly rise once again,
however, there is no concern for any high heat indicies. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s/ lower 90s, and
lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The biggest challenge is timing two different rounds of showers and
embedded thunderstorms over the next 24 hours. The first round is
making its way across the terminals this afternoon. There will be a
break in the shower activity this evening. The next  round will move
in from the west, reaching DHN and ECP during the pre-dawn hours
Friday, then spreading east toward ABY, TLH, and eventually VLD
after sunrise. Limited instability will limit coverage of thunder,
but there will be plenty of showers with reduced visibility.
Otherwise, the near-sunrise hours will flirt with cigs dropping
below 1,000 feet, especially for VLD where the lack of showers and
storms will allow the near-surface layer to stabilize the most.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Southwesterly flow prevails ahead of the cold front, with a
gradual wind shift to northerly as the front passes. The front
brings showers and thunderstorms to the marine zones today and
tomorrow, so expect isolated cells with heavier rain, wind gusts,
lightning activity, and the possibility for some waterspouts. Post
-frontal, favorable boating conditions are expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The passage of the cold front today and into the weekend bring
widespread rain to the region on Friday, with drier conditions in
its wake. RH remains above minimum criteria after the frontal
passage. Mixing heights are lower today and tomorrow afternoon,
around 1k-2k feet, due to the front. Past that, mixing heights
rise back into the 6k range post frontal. Fair dispersions persist
in the afternoons. The front may bring gusty conditions today and
tomorrow, and transport winds remain low throughout the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
While showers and storms over the next couple of days may produce
pockets of heavy rainfall, very dry antecedent conditions are
expected to inhibit any substantial flooding threat.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  84  69  86 /  50  90  50  30
Panama City   73  84  70  87 /  80  80  30  10
Dothan        70  82  66  86 /  70  70  10  10
Albany        71  83  68  86 /  60  80  40  20
Valdosta      71  87  68  86 /  30  80  60  40
Cross City    73  89  71  87 /  30  70  70  60
Apalachicola  73  83  71  85 /  60  90  50  30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ108.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion