Hot Springs, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

744
FXUS65 KMSO 141917
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
117 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
-  Widespread showers this afternoon into Monday for most of the
   Northern Rockies.
- Warming and drying by mid week.
An upper level trough along the West Coast will usher in a cold
front this afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
increase from west to east across the Northern Rockies. Wind gusts
around 20 mph will be possible (20-40%) through this evening
accompanying the front and showers. Areas of showers will continue
tonight through much of Monday as a weak mid level low develops
and rotates over the Northern Rockies.
The probability of a wetting rain (>0.10") this evening through
the day Monday remains high, 70-100% for the majority of the
Northern Rockies, excluding far northwest Montana where chances
are fall to around 50%. The probability for at least 0.25 inch of
rainfall is 70-90% across north-central Idaho and 50-70% for west-
central Montana. Overall, widespread showers are anticipated with
a beneficial rain for many locations. Additionally, it will be
much cooler with daytime highs 5-10 degrees below normal on Monday
with snow levels drop to around 8500 feet.
Patchy fog will be possible tomorrow morning for valley locations
across northwest Montana and north-central Idaho, and locations
adjacent to bodies of water for west-central Montana.
Confidence remains high with nearly 100% of forecast ensemble
models showing a shortwave ridge of high pressure building over
the Northern Rockies by Wednesday, ushering in a warming and
drying trend. By this coming weekend, the ridge will weaken as a
westerly flow develops, bringing an increase in westerly wind.
Most locations will remain dry, but more seasonable temperatures
will return.
&&
.AVIATION...Showers and scattered thunderstorms will increase
from west to east across the Northern Rockies later this
afternoon ahead of and along a cold front. Wind gusts around 20
kts will be common mid through early evening accompanying the
front and showers. Timing for thunderstorms will be between
14/2100Z-15/0200Z for KSMN, KHRF, KMSO and KBTM. Areas of
showers, periodic lowered ceilings/visibility and mountain
obscurations will continue tonight through much of Monday as a
weak mid level low rotates through. Patchy valley fog may bring
brief reductions in visibility and ceilings for KGPI between
15/1000Z-15/1500Z tomorrow morning.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS MSO Office Area Forecast Discussion