Huddleston, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

190
FXUS61 KRNK 231058
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
658 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Broad area of low pressure over the central United States will
move slowly east with time, resulting in a daily chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms today.
2) Warm Temperatures
Over next 24 hours, upper-level energy and surface low pressure
will both consolidated in the High Plains and move slowly east.
This will draw in ample Gulf moisture resulting in increasing
dewpoints for the central and eastern CONUS. Lead short wave
trough will cross our forecast area today...bringing clouds and
showers over the mountains this morning along with embedded
thunderstorms. Convergence along Blue Ridge then aids in
continued development as the activity moves east of the Blue
Ridge this afternoon.
Forecast soundings for the afternoon suggest Marginal Risk for
severe weather. Airmass along and east of the VA Blue Ridge is
expected to become moderately unstable with MUCAPE of 1000-1500
J/KG. Around 20-30kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple
loosely organized clusters with risk of locally damaging wind
gusts before weakening this evening. Small hail is also possible.
Temperatures today may be muted in the mountains due to the
morning shower activity and cloud cover. Warmest readings should
take place east of the Blue Ridge where early sunshine should
allow for temperature boost into the 80s before scattered storms
develop this afternoon. Mean wind is forecast to be out of the
west-southwest at about 25 mph, so not overly concerned with
respect to excessive rainfall. If anything we need the rain,
and cell speed should be high enough to mitigate residence time.
With dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s, looking at another
mild night tonight with lows mirroring the dewpoints. Where it
rains watch for patchy fog development.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key message:
1) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will bring much needed
   rainfall to the area.
The eastern trough of an omega block that is expected to develop
over the western conus by Wednesday is forecast to merge with a
shortwave vorticity maxima that will remain quasi-stationary over
the central Great Lakes region during most of the work week. As
these two troughs merge, it will break down the omega block, but
also lead to disturbed weather across the eastern conus as higher
PWATs are advected into the region from the Gulf and western
Atlantic. As these two upper level features merge with one another
over the Great Lakes region and southwestward into the Tennessee
river valley, the region will be under the influence of upper level
forcing for ascent. This will lead to daily chances for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday through Friday this
week. While PWATs look to remain under 1.5 inches, they should
recover to around the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range, which will provide
enough moisture for some heavy downpours with stronger
thunderstorms. This period of rain chances will hopefully bring much
needed rain to the area given the prolonged dry spell the region has
experienced. Current GEFS ensemble total average rainfall for the
region is around 0.5 to 0.75 for the region through Friday evening.
While much of the severe threat looks to remain northwest of the
region where better dynamics will be located, a few strong storms
with gusty winds can`t be ruled out on Thursday as the trough makes
its closest approach to the region.
Temperatures will generally run in the mid to upper 70s west of the
Blue Ridge and low 80s east of the Blue Ridge each day through the
end of the work week.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key message:
1) Dry weather returns over the weekend.
Rain chances are expected to completely diminish by Saturday morning
across the area as the merged trough axis pushes to the north and
east. A much stronger trough that is embedded in the northern
jetstream looks to push into the northern Great Lakes region on
Saturday; however, much of the forcing for ascent looks to remain
well north of the region, and into Canada. This combined with dry
air that overtook the eastern conus in the wake of the first trough
that is expected to progress east by the end of the week will lead
to minimal rain chances through the weekend.
By Sunday, the aforementioned northern stream trough is expected to
be past the Northeast, and a surface high pressure is forecast to
make its way into the Mid-Atlantic states starting on Sunday. This
surface high pressure looks to take hold over the region through the
beginning of next week. Temperatures generally look to remain
pleasant, with highs in the low to mid 70s west of the Blue Ridge
and upper 70s to low 80s east of the Blue Ridge each day through the
beginning of next week. Lows look to remain in the low 50s west of
the Blue Ridge to mid to upper 50s east of the Blue Ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...
Weather conditions expected to moisten today as southerly
flow brings moisture into the mid-atlantic. Series of upper
level short waves to cross the region this week, the lead
wave already crossing the mountains this morning. This feature
is expected to bring variable cloud cover and showers for
the mountains west of the Blue Ridge this morning. Daytime
heating will then lead to cloud buildups over and just east of
the mountains this afternoon with the potential for scattered
thunderstorms. Storms may produce some moderately strong
surface wind gusts...the storm prediction center highlighting an
area from ROA-LYH-CHO-DCA-PHL with a marginal risk for severe
storms this afternoon.
Showers/storms are expected to weaken and dissipate at sunset
leaving us with partly cloudy skies overnight with potential
for patchy fog, especially where it rains today.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the
remainder of this work week as a broad upper level trough of low
pressure and associated surface cold front slowly tracks
eastward and across the Appalachian Mountains. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are possible in the heavier storms, and some
patchy fog may occur during the overnight hours in response to
the increasing moisture. Thursday appears to have the greatest
coverage of showers and thunderstorms during this stretch. By
Saturday, the cold front should reach the East Coast as drier
air brings more widespread VFR conditions.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...EB
LONG TERM...EB
AVIATION...PM

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion