Hull, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

369
FXUS64 KHGX 051103
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Another hot day today with only a few isolated showers and storms
  over the coast.
- Increasing humidity on top of today`s hot temperatures will lead
  to heat index values peaking in the 102-106F range
- Rain chances return over the weekend and into early next week as
  moisture increases ahead of a frontal boundary.
- Hot days but comfortable nights are expected late this weekend
  into the middle of next week after the passage of a cold front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Summer heat continues today, and you will feel more humidity.
Surface high pressure to our east will continue to bring
southerly warm and more humid air overnight and through the day.
Increasing moisture will also bring more cloud cover and highs in
the mid to upper 90s. It will feel even hotter with peak afternoon
heat indices close to 102 - 107F. With increasing low-level
moisture, cannot rule out isolated showers or storms popping up
over the coast and along the seabreeze.
From hot and dry conditions, we will transition to a more active
pattern with isolated to scattered showers and storms over the
weekend into early next week. A gradual increase in moisture is
expected at the surface from the Gulf and at mid to upper levels
due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Lorena. Although, latest
guidance have trended a bit drier as Lorena shifts slightly
westward and weakens within the next 24 hrs; we will still see an
uptick in tropical moisture aloft. Given the latest forecast of
Lorena, it is uncertain the extent of moisture across SE TX.
However, forecast soundings keep suggesting increasing mid to
upper-level moisture after Saturday, and this will be enough to
support isolated to scattered activity through the weekend.
Overall, for Saturday, isolated to scattered showers and storms
are expected ahead and along and approaching cold front from the
north, and further south (close to the coast) along the
sea/baybreeze. The best rain/storm chances arrive Sunday into
Monday with the combination of the FROPA, increasing moisture, and
passing shortwaves aloft. Confidence in time of arrival of front
and the location of the heaviest rainfall and hence, total
rainfall amounts still remains moderate. As of now, we are not
anticipating a complete washout, but pockets of moderate to heavy
rain can be anticipated. WPC keeps highlighting this risk with a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall for all
southeast TX Sunday into early Monday.
A drier airmass will gradually filter in from the northwest early
next week. However, the frontal boundary will become quasi-
stationary along the coast or just offhsore through most of the
upcoming week. This boundary will serve as the main focus for
showers and storms. Therefore, will continue with a relatively dry
forecast inland, but with chances of rain/storms along the coast.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected Sunday
into mid-week as the boundary meanders near the region. This will
result in comfortable overnight lows further inland. Lows will
generally remain in the low 60s to mid 70s most of the upcoming
week.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Almost entirely VFR throughout, as long as you ignore the 5SM BR
at LBX right now, that will likely hang on until shortly after
sunrise. Winds will be light and SW-S this morning, becoming S-SE
later today. Main cloud deck will be high cirrus, ahead of
changing weather this weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Fair marine conditions continue today with light to occasionally
moderate onshore winds and low seas. A few/isolated showers and
storms cannot be ruled out along the coast, especially along the
sea breeze later this afternoon. The best rain and storm chances
arrive this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. This
boundary will move near the coast on Sunday, potentially stalling
along the coast or over the Gulf waters through early next week.
So, rain chances will continue through next week near this stalled
boundary. Moderate winds and seas up to 3-4 ft can be expected
early next week as the front moves through the waters.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  75  89  72 /   0  10  20  20
Houston (IAH)  95  77  92  75 /   0   0  30  20
Galveston (GLS)  89  83  89  80 /   0   0  20  30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion