Humboldt, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

367
FXUS63 KICT 191054
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
554 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry today with storm chances returning tonight into Saturday
  morning and again for Saturday night into Sunday.
- Cool and unsettled weather through much of the upcoming week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A shortwave trough was situated over the Northern Plains early this
morning. A pv anomaly is progged to rotate around this trough and
into the Central Plains this afternoon and evening while the
mid/upper trough progresses slowly east/southeastward. The airmass
is progged to remain uncapped and a rogue storm or two may be
possible late this afternoon but better chances are expected to
arrive this evening and tonight as a robust LLJ noses into
central and south central Kansas. This is expected to aid
overnight development over much of the area. 30-40 knots of deep
layer shear and MUCAPE in the 500-1000 J/KG range may allow for
some strong or marginally severe storms with large hail. The
highest probabilities for storms may remain along and north of a
line from near Russell to McPherson to Chanute. Meanwhile,
light winds and clear conditions combined with moist soils have
resulted in narrow T/TD spreads early this morning and some
patchy fog is anticipated, especially over the Flint Hills.
Sat-Sun...Another shortwave trough is progged to emerge from the
Rockies on Saturday bringing additional chances for showers and
storms to the area after only a brief break. Storms may linger into
early Sunday but confidence in the timing of the shortwave trough
remains fairly low at this time. Clouds and precipitation will
allow temperatures to remain seasonable through the period with
highs mainly in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s.
Mon-Thu...Unsettled weather conditions may linger through much of
the upcoming week as a mean trough remains situated over the central
CONUS bringing multiple opportunities for wetting rain through
the week. Seasonable temperatures are also anticipated through
the period with highs in the 70s/around 80 and lows in the 50s
and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Patchy morning fog could impact any of the TAF sites briefly
this morning where some transient reduced flight categories
could materialize but confidence remains too low to mention.
Light and variable winds will become southeast remaining light
this afternoon while gradually backing to an easterly direction
this evening and tonight. A line of storms could impact parts of
central Kansas this evening spreading south and east tonight.
It was handled with PROB30 groups beginning around 02Z in
central Kansas and around 06Z in south central KS. Some erratic
and gusty winds can be expected with any storm activity as well
as a brief period of MVFR cigs.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion