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Hyder, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

101
FXAK67 PAJK 012332
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 332 PM AKDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.SHORT TERM... Clearer skies, with some upper level cloud cover, will linger across areas East of Yakutat through the overnight, setting the stage for low temperatures to reach into the 30s across much of the area, with below-freezing weather expected for many locations - especially across the Icy Strait Corridor.

The break in the autumn pattern comes to a close through Thursday as another system enters the panhandle. While the morning hours on Thursday will still be largely on the drier side (except in Yakutat), through the afternoon and evening hours, rain spreads from NW to SE across the area. The track of the system`s parent low, which dives NW out of the interior, would during winter normally herald the arrival of a snow producing system. Given that this is only early October, anticipate it be primarily a rain event for most locations, although snow levels dropping down to 3,500 to 4,500ft will open up the opportunity for the termination dust line to continue to work down the mountainside, especially for the northern panhandle. The possibility of snow mixing down to White Pass is possible and could result in a dusting to minor accumulations for this area, particularly during heavier periods of precipitation Thursday into Friday. Everywhere below 3,000ft is expected to continue to see rain.

.LONG TERM... Friday begins just as a quick moving front moves off to the east southeast, with copious ridging behind the front. WAA from 850-500 mb will help to strengthen the ridge, with 500 mb heights reaching well above climatology for this time of year. With modest onshore flow, not expecting much clearing with the exception of around 6 hours post front, or Friday morning, but will definitely result in reduced rain chances through Saturday morning. For winds during Friday and Saturday, kept the southerly portion of the panhandle behind the front mostly westerly to 10 knots at a maximum, however, many areas will see lighter winds. The northern end of the panhandle have a much higher likelihood (60% chance) to see wind speeds from the south exceed 15 knots for longer, mostly driven by leeside troughing from westerly wind aloft moving over the Coast Mountains and troughing in the interior of Canada. Chances diminish into the evening hours of Friday before picking up again Sunday.

Sunday enters the uncertain portion of the forecast, as ensemble guidance has the highest spread regarding how fast a new upper trough will break down the currently set ridge during this time range. The main source of uncertainty is actually in regards to a strong low moving into the Bering Sea, which will have downstream implications for breaking down the ridge. A weaker system will keep a more progressive forecast, bringing more rain faster into the panhandle proper, with a stronger system deepening the trough, strengthening the downstream ridge, and keeping rain over Yakutat longer. Therefore, there are wide gates over Yakutat for how much rain to expect, with a higher likelihood (50%) between 1.5 and 3.5 inches in 48 hours, but lower chances (less than 15%) of exceeding 5 inches in the same duration.

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.AVIATION.../through 00z Friday/ VFR conditions prevail across the panhandle this afternoon as a low south of Haida Gwaii continues to meanders southward. Clear delineation in ceilings with SKC along and north of a line from Sitka over to Petersburg with CIGS south of this line AoA 6000ft. Anticipating low to continue to shift southward, pulling the line of SKC further southward, with Ketchikan going FEW250 through this evening. Through Wednesday night and into early Thursday morning, anticipating VFR conditions to prevail, with low forecast confidence of isolated patchy fog and low cig development AoB 1000ft near 12z under clear skies. By Thursday afternoon, anticipating gradual deterioration in flight conditions across the N Panhandle down to upper end MVFR to low end VFR from west to east, starting with Yakutat, as a front pushes across the N Gulf. Rain will overspread the rest of the N Panhandle TAF sites by 23Z Thursday.

Winds will decrease through rest of the evening going near calm and variable overnight, outside of Skagway and Haines which will see increasing sustained winds 15kts by 12z with gusts up to 25kts as gradient tightens from approaching front.

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.MARINE... Outside: Through Wednesday night, the current NW flow pattern shifts to a more SW direction as the ridge over the panhandle breaks down and a front begins moving into the Gulf. Through Thursday and Thursday night, winds turn out of the S as the front moves into the area, with winds of 25 kt to 30 kt anticipated for most areas, and gales (35 kt) for the far northern Gulf. Wave heights rebuild across the area, reaching 12-15 feet Thursday night for areas south of Cape Spencer, and 7-9 feet for areas north of Cape Spencer. Swell is currently of the S to SE, but by Thursday night, will be switching to SW.

Inside: Winds in the central and northern inner channels flip to a more S direction through Wednesday night, with winds in the southern channels following suit through the day on Thursday. Winds during the daytime hours on Thursday build to 15 t o20 kt, reaching 20 - 30 kt Thursday night as a front moves through. Wave heights increase on Thursday to 3-4 feet, and Thursday night up to 4 to 6 ft, with higher heights at ocean entrances and in areas with local tidal currents and influences (like Point Couverden).

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.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-642>644-651-661>664-671-672.

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SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM...NC AVIATION...NM MARINE...GFS

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