Ihlen, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

135
FXUS63 KFSD 050304
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1004 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fall-like temperatures will continue into the weekend as an
  unseasonably strong system brings much cooler air to the
  Northern Plains.
- Lows in the 30s will be possible on Saturday morning and
  likely on Sunday morning. Frost will be possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
High resolution models continue to diminish coverage of the
thunderstorm potential for late this afternoon into the evening. A
look at the soundings suggests instability struggling to increase
this afternoon which is likely the limiting factor. Of the showers
and storms that do develop, wind gusts around 60 mph will be the
main threat with drier air in the lower levels and very strong,
unidirectional winds aloft. The best chance for these isolated
strong wind gusts from showers and thunderstorms will be from 5 to 8
pm and especially east of I-29. While brief heavy downpours will be
possible, heavy rain is not expected.
Colder air races into the area tonight with northwest winds gusting
to around 40 to 50 mph late this afternoon into this evening,
gradually diminishing through the night, but still remaining a
bit breezy. This will lead into Friday with cooler surface high
pressure expected to build into the area helping winds diminish.
However, with stronger winds aloft once the diurnal cycle kicks
in and mixing increases, gusty winds are still expected on
Friday along with highs from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Also of
note on Friday is some shallow instability at the top of the
mixed layer which should lead to some towering cumulus and
spotty showers during peak diurnal heating.
The ridge of high pressure at the surface settles in for the weekend
with the potential for more widespread lows in the mid to upper 30s,
with this potential most likely on Sunday morning with the lightest
winds expected. Obviously this will bring the threat for some frost
so will need to watch the potential for this over the next day or
so. Otherwise the weekend will be dry and chilly with highs in the
60s.
Models still indicate some weak mid and upper level energy moving
through the area Monday into Tuesday which could bring a few showers
and thunderstorms. Currently the severe weather threat looks pretty
low. Tuesday night through about the end of the week upper level
ridging will build into the area and diminish any threats for
showers and storms. Otherwise above normal temperatures are
expected with lows Tuesday into Friday about 55 to 65 with highs
mostly in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Scattered mid-lvl clouds continue through the overnight hours as
northwesterly winds slowly subside.
Low-mid lvl clouds build in from the north by mid to late
morning of Friday. Initially some high end MVFR ceilings may
develop, but will quickly lift into VFR levels through the
afternoon. A very low probability of sprinkles may form by mid-
afternoon. Gusts over 20 knots may be possible through the
afternoon.
Ceilings slowly dissipate with the loss of daytime heating in
the evening, leaving a light and variable wind into Friday
night.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Dux

NWS FSD Office Area Forecast Discussion