Independence, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

933
FXUS64 KHGX 170531
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Seasonably hot temperatures with a daily risk of isolated to
  widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of
  the week.
- Rain and storm chances increase by the weekend and into early
  next week as the pattern changes.
- At the coasts, water levels remain above tidal norms, though
  should decrease somewhat as the week progresses.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Through Friday, expect highs generally in the low/mid 90s with a
daily risk of isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Many locations will remain dry. But some of you
will experience a brief downpour and perhaps some thunder as well.
By the weekend, the mid/upper flow pattern begins to change as a
trough digs southward into north-central CONUS and progresses
southeastward towards the Midwest. Guidance suggests the
introduction of vort maxes aloft, which would tend to increase
lift, at least at the mesoscale level. Therefore, the
shower/thunderstorm chances generally increase somewhat as we head
into the weekend. Interestingly, guidance digs the trough axis
farther south as we head into early next week while also showing a
surge of PWAT. Some of the guidance even suggests the formation of
a cut-off low over Texas. Uncertainty in the pattern is a little
too high to go aggressive on PoPs early next week. But are we are
indicating ~40-50 PoPs for Monday and ~40-60 PoPs for Tuesday of
next week. Worth mentioning that high PWATs coupled with a
mid/upper trough or low could set the region up for heavy showers
and thunderstorms early next week. Time will tell.
Temperatures remain toasty through the weekend into early next
week. However, we do note a modest decrease in temperatures by
early next week due to the prospect of more clouds, showers, and
thunderstorms. Perhaps we can keep most of the region below 90 on
Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Slow moving, scattered showers with a few thunderstorms have
developed mainly along the seabreeze late this afternoon. Expect
this activity to taper off within the next hour or so. Light and
variable winds will prevail tonight into Wednesday morning. More
scattered development and more coverage is expected Wednesday
afternoon with the best chances along the seabreeze. Will continue
with PROB30 for IAH, HOU and SGR for this set of TAFs, but it
might be needed for sites that are further inland in future
amendments. Overall, VFR conditions are expected through the
period.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Light to moderate east to southeast winds, 2-4 foot seas, and a
daily risk of isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the end of the week. In
addition, water levels should remain above tidal norms. However,
the levels should slowly decrease as the week progresses. By early
next week, the pattern may become more unsettled, featuring
greater coverage of showers and storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  70  94  71 /  20   0  20   0
Houston (IAH)  92  74  94  75 /  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  80  89  79 /  10  10  20  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion