Indian Creek Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

561
FXUS62 KMFL 120540
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
140 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
- A much drier air mass will build into the region today and it
   will remain mostly dry through the middle of the week.
- A northerly swell will continue to create poor marine and beach
   conditions for the Palm Beaches and the northern Atlantic
   waters through this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
A mid level closed low will remain basically parked over coastal
areas of the Southeast today and associated deep mid level troughing
will extend across the Florida Peninsula and into the Southeastern
Gulf. At the surface, low pressure centered off of the Carolina
coastline will pull away and move northeastward as the day
progresses. As high pressure builds into the region from the north,
this will allow for a good amount of drier air to filter into the
area as the surface wind flow remains northwesterly throughout
most of the day. The latest guidance suite shows PWAT values
falling throughout the day across most of the area and will range
from around 1.1 inches across the Lake Okeechobee region to around
1.6 inches across the extreme southeastern areas by the late
afternoon hours. This will promote dry conditions across the
region throughout most of the day. High temperatures this
afternoon will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across the
Lake Okeechobee region and into the mid to upper 80s along and
south of Alligator Alley.
Heading into tonight, surface winds will gradually veer and become
more north to northeasterly during this time frame. While the winds
will generally remain light tonight, there will still be some cool
air advection taking place across the region behind the front.
This will allow for low temperatures to drop into mid 60s west of
Lake Okeechobee to the upper 60s across the interior portions of
Southwest Florida. Low temperatures tonight across the east coast
metro areas will drop into the lower 70s.
While the mid level closed low generally pulls off to the northeast
on Monday, general mid level troughing will still extend over the
Florida Peninsula and into the Southeastern Gulf during this time
frame. At the surface, high pressure centered off the north will
continue to influence the weather pattern across South Florida
keeping the general synoptic wind flow north to northeasterly across
most of the region. Dry conditions will remain in place with PWAT
values potentially dropping down to around an inch west of Lake
Okeechobee. Elsewhere across the region, PWAT values of 1.1 to 1.3
inches will be common throughout most of the day. The exception to
this will be across the extreme southeastern areas where PWAT values
may range between 1.5 and 1.6 inches. With this dry air remaining in
place throughout the vertical column on Monday, most of South
Florida will remain rain free. However, there could be just
enough lower level moisture in place to spark off an isolated
brief shower or two over the southeastern areas along the breeze.
High temperatures on Monday will generally rise into the mid 80s
across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 80s across the rest
of South Florida.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
As mid level troughing begins to pull away to the northeast, South
Florida will remain under a general weakness in the mid levels
between two ridges through the middle of the week. The stronger
ridge will remain centered over the Southern Plains through the
middle of the week while another ridge tries to build towards South
Florida from the northwestern Carribean. At the surface, high
pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across
South Florida during this time frame bringing mainly dry
conditions to the region through Wednesday. As high pressure
strengthens over the region, the pressure gradient will begin to
tighten which will cause an increase in the north to northeasterly
wind flow towards the middle of the week. This could bring breezy
conditions to the area especially along the east coast heading
into Wednesday. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will
generally remain in the mid to upper 80s across most areas.
During the second half of the week, mid level troughing to the east
of South Florida will amplify during this time frame. This will
cause the wind flow aloft to become more west northwesterly on
Thursday and Friday. At the surface, breezy north to northeasterly
winds on Thursday will gradually veer and become more easterly
heading into Friday. This wind shift combined with an increased
wind flow will allow for moisture advection to take place mainly
across the lower levels. This moisture increase will be enough to
support the return of a slight chance of showers on Thursday and
Friday. Any shower activity would remain rather low topped and
short lived during this time frame as an abundance of dry air
remaining in place aloft would prevent any type of vertical
development of these showers. High temperatures towards the end of
the week will range from the mid to upper 80s across the east
coast metro areas to around 90 across interior portions of
Southwest Florida.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light
winds overnight will increase out of the NW after 15z and will
range between 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. An east coast sea breeze
may try to develop and push inland late this afternoon which would
switch the winds around to an ENE direction mainly at KFLL, KFXE,
and KPBI, however, confidence remains low as to how far inland
the sea breeze would make it. Winds will then become light again
after 00z Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
A gentle to moderate northwesterly breeze will develop across the
local waters today. These winds will then shift and become north to
northeasterly tonight and into the early portion of the week as high
pressure continues to build into the region. A northerly swell
across the Atlantic waters will gradually diminsh this afternoon and
into the early portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic
waters today could range from 6 to 8 feet across the northern
areas, however, these seas will drop and range from 2 to 4 feet
for the early portion of the week. Seas across the Gulf waters
will generally range from 1 to 3 feet through the middle of the
week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
With a lingering northerly swell in place across the Atlantic
waters, a high risk of rip currents will remain in place through the
early portion of the week across the Palm Beaches. A moderate risk
of rip currents will remain in place across the Broward and Miami
Dade beaches through the rest of the weekend and into the early
portion of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            86  73  87  73 /  10  10  10   0
West Kendall     86  71  87  71 /  10  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        87  72  88  73 /  10  10  10   0
Homestead        86  71  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  85  72  85  73 /  10  10   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  86  72  86  73 /  10  10   0   0
Pembroke Pines   88  72  90  73 /  10  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  85  71  85  71 /  10   0   0   0
Boca Raton       86  71  87  72 /  10  10   0   0
Naples           85  69  88  69 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ168.
High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ650-
     670.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC

NWS mfl Office Area Forecast Discussion