Indian Valley Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

006
FXUS65 KBOI 141610
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1010 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.DISCUSSION...An area of deformation in the mid levels has
allowed a band of light to moderate precipitation to develop
across portions of southern Idaho and far southeast Oregon. This
band as of 10 AM MDT extends through the Treasure Valley and
into the central mountains near Stanley. Snow levels range from
near 6000 feet in the central mountains to 7000-8000 feet near
the Nevada border. This band of rain and snow should weaken by
early afternoon as it lifts north. Weak instability should allow
additional shower and isolated thunderstorm development across
the higher terrain of southwest Idaho this afternoon and early
evening. Otherwise, it will be cool today with locally breezy
winds. The parent upper low driving this pattern, currently
centered along the central California coast, will lift northeast
tonight and send additional showers into mainly southwest
Idaho. Made a couple updates to lower snow levels and increase
coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon, but otherwise forecast
is on track.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR-LIFR in low stratus in the Magic Valley, and MVFR
locally as a band of precipitation moves south to north this
morning. Embedded thunderstorms possible in central Idaho this
afternoon and evening, before another band of showers moves in
tonight. Snow levels rise from 6-7 kft MSL to 7-8 kft MSL this
evening. Surface winds: variable 5-10 kt becoming W-NW 5-15 kt this
afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 5-15 kt.
KBOI...VFR, light rain this morning moving out of the area. Rain
returns to the vicinity tomorrow. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...A closed low
centered just off the San Francisco coast this morning is
already spreading showers and a few thunderstorms north across
southwest Idaho. A jet streak moving across Nevada and Utah are
helping to spark this initial activity, which is focused along
the Nevada/Idaho border this morning. A slight chance (15
percent) for this activity to push further north into the
southern Boise Mountains later this morning as showers gradually
continue moving north northwest. As the low shifts inland
across California later today, a shift to warmer southerly winds
will slightly increase temperatures and provide a 10 to 20
percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms, primarily over the
highest terrain in Central Idaho. Rainfall will be minimal
through this evening, generally less than 0.10 inches, with snow
anticipated only on the highest peaks above 7000 feet.
A more organized push of moisture will arrive late tonight into
Wednesday morning as the storm center moves north and east
across Nevada and into Utah. This will set up a band of heavier
precipitation across mainly southwest Idaho. Current high res
model guidance shows the heaviest rain remaining south of the
Rome-Boise-Stanley line. Rainfall totals from this band will be
around 0.20 to 0.50 inches by Wednesday night, with noticeably
cooler temperatures. Snow levels will drop to 6500 to 7500 feet
by Wednesday evening, bringing another 1 to 3 inches of snow to
mountain ridgetops in the heaviest showers. The Boise area
remains on the northern edge of the heaviest precipitation, with
only a 30 percent chance of seeing greater than a tenth of an
inch of rain.
Cooler northerly flow will settle in behind the exiting low
pressure system on Thursday. This will result in mostly dry
conditions and keep temperatures about 5 degrees below normal.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...As an upper-level low
pressure system departs to the east, high pressure building over
the northern Pacific will establish a general northwesterly
flow across the region. From Friday through early Sunday, this
pattern will bring enough moisture for persistent scattered
clouds, but with limited instability, precipitation chances will
remain below 10%. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal
normals.
Significant uncertainty arises in the forecast from Sunday
onward, concerning a deep trough approaching the coast. The
current forecast maintains a 40-50% chance for precipitation,
with snow levels falling to near 5,000 feet MSL and temperatures
dropping as much as 10 degrees below normal. However, confidence
in this scenario is decreasing. Recent ensemble guidance and a
few deterministic models are now showing a weaker trough, with
some solutions keeping it from impacting the region
entirely.Given the model disagreement, the forecast will
maintain chances for a wetter and colder solution for now, but
significant changes are possible in the coming days.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...ST
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JDS

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion