Inn Of The Mountain Gods New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

290
FXUS64 KEPZ 071223
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
623 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
- Temperatures remain a few degrees above normal through the
   week.
- Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
   Wednesday with some locally heavy rain possible, favoring
   northern and eastern areas.
-  Drier conditions Thursday through Saturday, possibly trending
   back up Sunday and Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1008 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Satellite shows positively tilted trough persisting from the
Dakotas down across the Great Basin to SoCal. Southwest flow
continues over the CWA. The last of the high level moisture from
Octave is still streaming over the area. Meanwhile further south,
Hurricane Priscilla slowly churns northwest hugging the Pacific
Coast of the Baja. As mentioned before, she still is not
contributing any moisture to our area, but she has allowed the
sub-tropical ridge to build west across northern Mexico. Under
this weak flow well aloft, mid-level flow has turned east and
southeast, importing some moisture from the Gulf of America. At
the surface a quasi-dryline is moving west into the CWA. It
currently sits in the far eastern CWA, but the models showing it
reaching at least the RG Valley by Tuesday afternoon and at least
to the Cont Divide by late afternoon. Thus, this moisture which
has already fueled a few showers/thunderstorms this evening over
Otero and Hudspeth Counties should move further west Tuesday. With
modest CAPE values and marginal shear, some storms could become
strong to near severe. Unseasonably high PWs will also mean storms
could produce some heavy rain, though storm motion looks to be
around 15-20 mph, helping mitigate some flood potential. Wednesday
should continue with this monsoon-ish pattern; more rain and
storms.
Thursday through Saturday...sub-tropical ridge forms a closed high
center over west Texas. This will begin to shunt the moisture
plume mostly north and west of the area. Slight chances of rain
could materialize out west near the Arizona border.
Sunday and Monday...both GFS/ECMWF show Pacific trough finally
making some inroads eastward, and helping push moisture plume back
over our area, along with drawing some moisture up from the
tropical system-to-be Raymond. Looks like more rain both days. GFS
even brings the remnants of Raymond up over our area Tuesday. Stay
tuned as with most tropical features, the models are bound to
change several more times.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Increasing low level moisture from southeast low level flow will
bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as early as
20Z at LRU and ELP, but more likely tonight after 00-01Z. Ceilings
will remain in the VFR range, but brief periods of visibility
restrictions will be more likely in any storms that develop.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 615 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Low level southeast winds will increase moisture across the area
today, with showers and thunderstorms expected, especially across
south-central New Mexico and the Sacramento Mountains. Quieter
weather will prevail Thursday into Friday, but humidity levels
will not drop off much. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to
return late Saturday and into early next week as a more active
pattern sets up.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  84  67  85 /  40  10  20   0
Sierra Blanca            59  79  57  80 /  20  10   0  10
Las Cruces               63  80  61  81 /  50  10  20  10
Alamogordo               60  81  60  81 /  30  20  10   0
Cloudcroft               44  57  43  58 /  60  30  10  10
Truth or Consequences    60  78  59  76 /  40  20  30  10
Silver City              56  74  56  73 /  20  30  30  20
Deming                   64  83  63  83 /  30  20  20  10
Lordsburg                63  82  64  81 /  10  10  20  10
West El Paso Metro       68  82  67  83 /  40  10  20   0
Dell City                62  81  60  83 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             67  86  65  87 /  30  10   0   0
Loma Linda               60  74  58  76 /  30  10  10   0
Fabens                   66  85  65  86 /  30   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             65  81  64  82 /  50  10  20   0
White Sands HQ           63  81  62  81 /  40  10  20  10
Jornada Range            62  80  60  79 /  30  20  20  10
Hatch                    62  83  61  82 /  30  20  20  10
Columbus                 65  84  65  85 /  30  10  20  10
Orogrande                61  79  60  79 /  40  10  20   0
Mayhill                  49  67  48  68 /  60  30  10  10
Mescalero                49  70  47  71 /  60  30  20  10
Timberon                 47  67  47  67 /  50  20  10  10
Winston                  50  71  50  70 /  40  40  30  20
Hillsboro                56  77  57  76 /  40  30  30  10
Spaceport                58  79  58  79 /  30  20  20  10
Lake Roberts             52  75  51  75 /  20  40  30  20
Hurley                   58  76  57  76 /  20  30  30  10
Cliff                    60  83  60  81 /  10  30  30  20
Mule Creek               56  80  56  77 /  20  30  30  20
Faywood                  58  76  58  75 /  20  30  30  10
Animas                   63  83  63  83 /  10  10  20  10
Hachita                  62  81  62  81 /  20  10  20  10
Antelope Wells           61  82  61  84 /  30  10  20  10
Cloverdale               60  79  60  79 /  10  10  20  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...25-Hardiman

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion