Jackson Cemetery, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

129
FXUS64 KBRO 080345
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1045 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1043 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- There is a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall
across much of the area through late tonight.
- Near normal temperatures and rain chances will continue into
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A weak cold front across the northern ranchlands this evening will
continue to drift slowly southward and linger across the CWA Monday
into Tuesday. Deep moisture remains in place across the region with
PWATs above 2 inches, the 0Z Brownsville sounding indicated a PW of
2.41 inches. The combination of deep tropical moisture, instability
from the southward moving frontal boundary, and remnant outflow
boundaries could generate some additional convection across Deep
South Texas late this evening into the overnight hours. Brownsville
radar currently shows some fading activity across portions of Rio
Grande Plains extending into the Upper Valley and over the Gulf
waters. The abundant moisture and light winds aloft still have the
potential to produce heavy rainfall with any of the slower moving
showers and thunderstorms that does develop. WPC maintains a
marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall across much of
the area through late tonight.
The latest CAMS, including the HRRR, indicate a lull in activity for
most of the night until another possible around of convection
develops, mainly near the coast, before sunrise. Daytime heating and
the weak frontal boundary meandering across the area should lead to
another round of showers and thunderstorms across the area on
Monday.
Slightly drier air arrives Monday night into Tuesday with PWATs
falling to between 1.4 to 1.7 inches. However, the abundant moisture
combined with the seabreeze each afternoon will maintain daily rain
chances through the week. Will lean towards an NBM,
CONSShort/CONSALL and manual adjustments as the NBM appears to be
overdone for pops. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Light northeast to east winds with some low and high clouds prevail
across Deep South Texas early this evening. Generally light
northeast to east winds are expected to continue through the period.
Another round or two of convection is possible late tonight/early
morning and again Monday afternoon based on current CAMS. Brief MVFR
or IFR conditions will be possible in and around any convection.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Generally favorable conditions will prevail through the period with
light to moderate winds and low seas. A low to medium (20 to 60
percent) chance of rain will continue along the Lower Texas Coast
and over the Gulf waters through the period. The increase in low
level moisture and light winds may support a few waterspouts at
times. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in and around
any showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             85  77  89  76 /  70  60  50  50
HARLINGEN               87  73  91  73 /  70  60  60  40
MCALLEN                 89  78  93  76 /  80  50  50  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  74  92  73 /  70  40  50  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      85  79  87  81 /  80  70  70  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  76  89  76 /  80  70  50  50
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...63-KC

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion