Jacona, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

200
FXUS65 KABQ 051135 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 507 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Monsoon moisture increases today and Saturday producing
  scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
  and evening. Locally heavy rainfall will threaten rapid rises on
  poorly drained arroyos and city arroyo systems, including the
  ABQ and Santa Fe metros.
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity today and Saturday will
  increase the risk of burn scar flash flooding, notably over the
  Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon and Ruidoso area burn scars.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
BLUF: Flash Flood Watch issued for Ruidoso area burn scars for
today. Low forecast confidence remains for thunderstorm threatening
flash flooding over the burn scars, higher confidence for Saturday.
As advertised, TS Lorena has seen its circulation decouple with a
ghostly remnant surface swirl off the Baja Peninsula coast with a
large chunk of its mid-to-upper level moisture peeling away and
moving northeast over northwestern Mexico. Latest numerical model
guidance is showing the current blanket of high level cirrus across
the southeastern two-thirds of the state will get pushed eastward
toward TX thru the day Friday. Meanwhile, a potent cold front
backing south and west into northeastern NM from CO will advance
thru the northeastern quadrant of NM before being stalled by late
Friday morning. Surface winds riding up the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo Mts, coupled with a weak shortwave over the Four
Corners area and stronger diurnal surface destabilization over
northwestern NM will favor stronger and more robust CI along the
Continental Divide and northern mountains of NM Friday afternoon.
Widespread wetting footprints with embedded hot spots of 1.00" to
1.50" rainfall will blanket this area of the state, spreading into
portions of the northern and middle Rio Grande Valleys late Friday
afternoon and evening, including the Santa Fe and Albuquerque metro
areas. This will increase the risk of rapid rises on arroyos, and
city arroyo drainage systems. The Flash Flood Watch focused on the
Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn scars remains on track given this
setup as well.
Further south and east along the south-central mountains remains a
big question mark regarding instability. Guidance remains that high
level cirrus will be late to clear from this area around mid-
afternoon. Plus, the aforementioned cold front looks to stall well
north of the south-central mountains, removing any mechanical
forcing from upslope flow into the mountains. Hi-res time heights
and model soundings for Ruidoso do show a steady clearing in the mid-
to-upper levels of the atmosphere, and roughly 50% of hi-res CAMs
show a spot shower or thunderstorm developing somewhere along the
Sacramento Mts. Therefore, there is a fair to decent shot at a
garden variety thunderstorm capable of producing flash flooding over
the Ruidoso area burn scars. Current likelihood is flash flooding
over the most susceptible areas of the burn scar if such a
thunderstorm should occur, with a widespread life-threatening
situation only in an unlikely worst case scenario. A Flash Flood
Watch will be issued with this forecast package for the Ruidoso
area burn scars with low forecast confidence remaining.
Numerous shower activity looks to persist overnight Friday into
Saturday morning focusing over the central areas of the state. A
secondary late round of showers moving along the advancing line of
the surface cold front could again threaten the Ruidoso area early
Saturday morning.
The trend in model guidance showing the bulk of the slug of
monsoonal moisture from the mid-to-upper level remnants of Lorena
sticking south of the area over northern Chihuahua and far southern
NM has remained true with the 00Z model runs. This is setting the
stage for greater clearing over western and central NM. Greater
surface diurnal heating combined with mesoscale disturbances moving
west to east over the area will set the stage for more numerous
afternoon thunderstorm activity developing along the Continental
Divide and central mountain chain, except further south compared to
what`s forecast for Friday. Healthier and stronger thunderstorms
will track east, spreading over the Rio Grande Valley and central
highland areas Saturday afternoon and evening threatening locally
heavy rainfall. As such, another round of Flash Flood Watches for
recent burn scar areas looks likely Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Conditions warm up and dry out west to east thru the day Sunday as
the bulk of monsoonal moisture is replaced by a shortwave ridge of
high pressure. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor
areas along and east of the central mountain chain. This weather
pattern remains true for Monday before a shift arrives Tuesday. With
a large synoptic scale trough entering the Pac Coast, large scale
southerly flow looks to develop across NM at the surface. The latest
00Z suite of model guidance actually appears to advertise a
potential severe weather scenario across western NM as afternoon
thunderstorms developing along the Continental Divide would have a
questionable amount of vertical shear to work with. Any shift
eastward in the trough would increase the risk of severe weather, a
shift westward would lower it. A slow progression of the upper level
troughing pattern Wednesday and Thursday could keep this severe
weather threat persisting each of these afternoons as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Broken to overcast skies persist this morning with lowering
ceilings reaching into portions of northeastern NM behind a cold
front backing south and west to KLVS to KTCC b/w 12Z to 13Z.
Thereafter, numerous showers and thunderstorms will favor
development along the Continental Divide and central mountain
chain from the Sandia/Manzano`s northward along the Sangre de
Cristo Mts. MVFR conditions will accompany this activity as it
tracks east to southeast spreading into the Rio Grande Valley.
Have gone prevailing showers for KSAF-KABQ-KAEG-KLVS with tempos
pinning down the highest confidence time period for a passing
thunderstorm. Lesser instability will be present over eastern and
southeastern NM lowering chance for thunderstorms. Showers will be
slow to wane over northern and central NM heading into Friday
night, with steadily expanding shower coverage entering southern
NM. As conditions calm, fog and mist will be likely to develop
over portions of central and eastern NM early Saturday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
No fire weather concerns today and Saturday with a large influx of
monsoonal moisture arriving. Scattered to numerous showers with
embedded thunderstorm activity forecast each day. Drier and warmer
conditions return to western and central NM Sunday and Monday with
higher moisture holding onto the eastern plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  80  60  81  58 /  30  20  40  10
Dulce...........................  74  45  74  43 /  80  40  70  20
Cuba............................  73  50  71  49 /  70  60  70  30
Gallup..........................  77  52  76  50 /  30  30  50  10
El Morro........................  73  51  72  50 /  60  50  80  40
Grants..........................  74  53  75  51 /  70  50  80  30
Quemado.........................  75  51  73  51 /  40  40  70  30
Magdalena.......................  74  54  72  54 /  50  60  80  40
Datil...........................  71  51  70  49 /  50  50  80  40
Reserve.........................  77  52  75  51 /  50  40  80  30
Glenwood........................  78  55  77  55 /  50  40  70  30
Chama...........................  67  44  67  43 /  90  60  80  30
Los Alamos......................  70  52  68  53 /  80  70  70  40
Pecos...........................  67  49  68  49 /  70  70  60  40
Cerro/Questa....................  66  47  67  48 /  90  70  60  30
Red River.......................  58  40  60  40 /  90  70  60  30
Angel Fire......................  60  37  64  36 /  80  60  60  30
Taos............................  71  48  70  47 /  90  70  60  30
Mora............................  62  44  65  45 /  80  70  60  40
Espanola........................  76  54  74  53 /  80  70  60  40
Santa Fe........................  71  53  69  53 /  70  70  50  40
Santa Fe Airport................  75  52  72  51 /  70  70  50  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  60  76  61 /  60  70  60  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  58  78  59 /  50  70  50  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  59  79  59 /  50  70  50  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  60  78  60 /  50  70  40  40
Belen...........................  83  58  80  56 /  40  60  50  30
Bernalillo......................  81  58  78  59 /  60  70  50  40
Bosque Farms....................  82  57  79  55 /  40  60  50  30
Corrales........................  81  59  78  59 /  50  70  50  40
Los Lunas.......................  83  58  79  57 /  40  60  50  30
Placitas........................  77  57  75  57 /  60  70  50  40
Rio Rancho......................  81  59  77  59 /  50  70  50  40
Socorro.........................  82  60  80  59 /  30  50  60  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  72  51  70  52 /  60  70  60  40
Tijeras.........................  74  53  73  54 /  60  70  60  40
Edgewood........................  74  50  72  50 /  60  60  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  75  49  73  48 /  60  60  50  40
Clines Corners..................  69  49  69  51 /  60  50  40  40
Mountainair.....................  73  51  72  51 /  50  60  60  40
Gran Quivira....................  73  52  73  52 /  50  60  60  40
Carrizozo.......................  74  56  75  57 /  30  40  60  50
Ruidoso.........................  67  51  67  52 /  40  40  70  50
Capulin.........................  59  45  70  48 /  50  40  20  20
Raton...........................  64  47  72  49 /  60  50  30  20
Springer........................  66  48  73  49 /  60  50  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  66  48  68  48 /  70  60  50  40
Clayton.........................  61  49  73  55 /  30  30   5  10
Roy.............................  64  49  69  51 /  40  40  20  30
Conchas.........................  72  54  76  58 /  30  40  10  30
Santa Rosa......................  73  52  74  56 /  40  40  20  40
Tucumcari.......................  72  51  75  56 /  20  30  10  30
Clovis..........................  78  54  76  59 /  20  20  10  30
Portales........................  80  54  78  59 /  20  20  10  30
Fort Sumner.....................  79  56  78  59 /  20  30  20  40
Roswell.........................  81  60  81  62 /  20  20  20  30
Picacho.........................  76  55  74  56 /  30  30  50  40
Elk.............................  72  52  72  53 /  30  30  60  40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214-
215-229.
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion