Jal, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

516
FXUS64 KMAF 070459
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1159 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1156 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Below normal temperatures are expected with a continued chance
  of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. The greatest
  rain chances (30-60 percent) are anticipated tonight into
  Sunday, particularly over the Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and Davis
  Mountains region.
- Low (15%-30%) chance of showers/storms over Marfa Plateau into eastern
  and southeastern parts of Permian Basin and Terrell County
  Monday tapering off by late evening, with highs warming from
  Sunday as cloud cover decreases from west to east.
- Probability of showers/storms less than 15% from Tuesday into end
  of the week, with seasonable high and low temperatures and
  southeast/south winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A westerly to northwesterly flow aloft continues across our
region this afternoon to the north of an upper-level ridge that is
oriented across Mexico and also to the southwest of a broad
upper- level trough extending along and east of the Mississippi
Valley region. The cold front that pushed into our area yesterday
evening/last night has basically stalled across the southeast New
Mexico plains and into the southern Permian Basin/Trans Pecos
region as of early this afternoon. Low level clouds have held
strong across much of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin
through the morning and temperatures are still holding in the 60s
north of an Artesia, Hobbs, Big Spring line as of 1 PM CDT (noon
MDT), while readings are gradually warming into the 70s and 80s
across the remainder of the forecast area. Weak shortwave impulses
embedded within the W-NW flow have aided in the development of
isolated to scattered light rain showers along and behind the
boundary this morning and early this afternoon, with a few
thunderstorms forming along the Lower Trans Pecos within a region
of increasing instability south of the front.
There are no significant changes to our forecast thinking through
Sunday night. The upper-level flow pattern will transition more
northwesterly tonight through Sunday night as the upper-level
ridge over Mexico shifts further to the west toward the Baja
region and also amplifies over the Rocky Mountains. A plume of
deep layer moisture will remain in place over much of our area
tonight into Sunday with precipitable water values up to 1.25-1.6
inches. The surface boundary will remain oriented over the
southeast New Mexico Plains/Trans Pecos tonight but gradually
becomes diffuse into Sunday. Shortwave impulses embedded within
the northwesterly flow should aid in ascent for the development of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this evening into
tonight, with guidance especially focusing development along
portions of the Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and Davis Mountains region
in the vicinity of and ahead of the front. We will maintain
relatively good chances (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms this
evening/tonight along this portion of our area, with lower
probabilities (10-30%) across the remainder of southeast New
Mexico and into the Permian Basin. A few storms may be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall tonight along and south of the
front. Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop into Sunday within the northwesterly flow
aloft pattern, with the best chances (30-50%) once again favored
over the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau/Lower Trans Pecos region.
Convective chances should diminish going into Sunday
evening/night. Overnight lows should continue to range in the
upper 50s to mid 60s over much of the region, except for upper 60s
to lower 70s along the Rio Grande tonight and Sunday night. Highs
on Sunday will mostly range in the 80s, except in the 90s along
the Rio Grande.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The onset of drier weather and more seasonable temperatures will
follow rain chances tapering off late evening Monday as the upper
level trough and remnants of TC Lorena move off to the east. Highs
Monday rise into upper 80s F to lower 90s F, lower to mid 90s F
along Pecos River, lower to mid 80s F higher elevations, and mid
to upper 90s F along Rio Grande as cloud cover decreases from west
to east. Low (15%-30%) probability of showers/storms develop over
Marfa Plateau into east and southeast Permian Basin into Terrell
County Monday afternoon and evening before tapering off. High
probability of rainfall from earlier this week up to 0.25" over
Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos, but with low probability of
rainfall 0.50" to 0.75" or higher, and spreads remaining a few
tenths of an inch at most. Therefore, while flooding in heaviest
showers/storms cannot be ruled out, earlier this week is not
looking like a washout. Lows Monday night fall into mid to upper
60s F, mid to upper 50s F higher elevations, and lower 70s F along
Rio Grande amidst light southeast winds and dew point
temperatures remaining in the 60s F, 50s F western higher terrain.
Most storm systems and associated lift and moisture will bypass
the area to the north and west, with large scale sinking motion
provided by mid to upper ridging over the central part of the
country, so the rest of this week is expected to remain dry. Winds
veer more southerly by Tuesday with trajectories less directed
off the Gulf, resulting in dew point temperatures falling back
into the 50s F, upper 40s to lower 50s F western higher terrain.
Highs settle into the lower to mid 90s F, 80s F higher elevations,
and mid to upper 90s F southern Rio Grande basins, 100F or higher
at Big Bend each day Tuesday into the end of the week. Lows
likewise stay in the mid to upper 60s F, mid to upper 50s F higher
elevations and northern Lea County, and lower to mid 70s F along
the Rio Grande into southeast Permian Basin.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
MVFR stratus is forecast to develop up the Pecos River Valley
overnight, and may briefly reach KMAF/KFST/KINK Sunday morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. A widespread
cu field is anticipated Sunday afternoon, w/bases starting ~ 4.5
kft AGL. A few high clouds are anticipated Sunday night as light
surface winds veer back to return flow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76  62  85  66 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                 78  63  86  65 /   0  20  20  10
Dryden                   91  68  83  69 /   0  50  50  10
Fort Stockton            83  64  85  65 /   0  30  30   0
Guadalupe Pass           69  59  79  63 /   0  20  20  10
Hobbs                    73  59  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    76  57  80  57 /   0  20  50  10
Midland Intl Airport     82  64  85  67 /   0  10  20  10
Odessa                   78  64  84  66 /   0  10  20  10
Wink                     80  64  85  66 /   0  10  20  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion