Jamestown, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

837
FXUS63 KTOP 191717
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1217 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of storms late this afternoon or evening, a few
  may become strong, producing small hail and gusty winds. Not
  expecting widespread severe storms.
- An active weather pattern continues into next week with cooler
  temperatures and near daily precipitation chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
In the wake of a departing upper-level trough, surface wind has
diminished and dewpoint depressions are near zero. This is
leading to areas of fog across northeast Kansas. Fog could be
dense at times, mainly across river valleys and low-lying areas.
Fog may develop further south and east through the early
morning, before clearing out shortly after sunrise.
Most of the day Friday should be clear and quiet. Another
upper- level wave will dive out of the northern Plains this
afternoon. Lift associated with this wave and an increasing low-
level jet should lead to scattered thunderstorms late this
afternoon and into the evening. Timing of the wave will be key
in determining how strong storms will become today. If
thunderstorms don`t develop until the evening our chances for
severe storms is a bit lower due to an expected decoupling of
the boundary layer and lower amounts of instability. If the wave
arrives this afternoon and storms develop, we could see a
parameter space favorable for some low-end supercells with
effective shear around 45 knots and CAPE around 1,000 J/Kg.
Central Kansas, namely Republic, Cloud, Ottawa, and Dickinson
Counties, stand the best chance (10% or less) of seeing severe
storms this afternoon or early evening. Otherwise, just general
thunderstorms are expected to overspread central and eastern
Kansas late in the evening and overnight. Storms could have rain
rates around one inch an hour with PWATs above 1.5 inches and
at least a few hundred joules of elevated instability.
Most of the day Sunday should be dry in the wake of a departing
wave. This break will likely be brief though as wave after wave
may move through the central Plains next week with westerly to
northwesterly flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface
bringing reinforcing shots of moisture. Temperatures are
favored to around normal for this time of the year with highs in
the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions should persist until at least 03Z. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase after this though uncertainty
on where and when the greatest coverage will be is low. Will go
ahead with a PROB30 group for the most likely timing for now.
There are some indications limiting ceilings forming late in
this forecast and will need to be monitored.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Poage

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion