Java Center, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

167
FXUS61 KBUF 151457
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1057 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Fair dry weather will last throughout the week as surface high
pressure expands and slides southeast across the region.
Additionally, summer-like temperatures will return this week and
last through mid-week before more seasonable weather returns by the
end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clear skies and dry weather will continue to dominate through
tonight as surface high pressure over southern Quebec expands
southward toward the lower Great Lakes and Northeast.
For the remainder of today, mainly dry weather will persist.
However, a northeast winds will freshen to 10-15 knots south of Lake
Ontario this afternoon.
Light winds and clear skies tonight will once again support the
development of Southern Tier valley fog second half of tonight
through mid morning Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will continue through the period as high pressure
remains the dominate feature. Warm advection will push daytime
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with highs both Tuesday
and Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. There may be some
additional cloud cover later in the period, as a weak coastal low
moves into the Mid Atlantic region, but otherwise fair skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Our area remains dry Thursday as the remnant trough moves northeast
off the New England coast. A moisture-starved cold front will press
south into the area Thursday night. Though a few showers will be
possible toward the eastern Lake Ontario region, the better forcing
will be to our northeast, yet with still only limited available
moisture. Needless to say, any rainfall appears as though it will be
"non-impactful." Cold front pushes south of the area Friday, with a
cooler air mass moving into the region for the tail end of the work
week into the weekend. Medium range guidance has come into better
agreement on the overall late week/weekend pattern, which does not
bode well for anyone wishing for some beneficial rainfall, at least
through the first half of next weekend. Strong area of sprawling
Canadian high pressure builds south across New York and New England
later Friday through Saturday with dry weather expected to continue.
Confidence lowers by Sunday, as high pressure slides east off the
New England coast possibly allowing a disorganized and weakening
area of low pressure to our west to try to make some eastward
progression, perhaps allowing for a few showers to make it into our
area by the second half of next weekend (Latest NBM has SChc to low
Chc PoPs by Sunday). Surprise, surprise...taking a glance at the
latest 12Z medium range guidance coming in, these rain chances for
Sunday have been shoved a bit further westward once again.
Otherwise, expect more seasonable temperatures Friday through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clear skies and VFR conditions prevail today and tonight as surface
high pressure builds southeastward from southern Quebec towards New
England.
VFR conditions and light winds will prevail today through tonight.
Similar to this morning, overnight valley fog across the Southern
Tier will be possible after 6Z Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Overnight valley fog across the
western Southern Tier will be possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Weak light winds will give way to a period of persistent
northeasterly winds through Tuesday as the center of a surface high
gradually slides across southern Quebec towards New England. This
may result in a bit more chop on the waters, especially along the
western end of Lake Ontario and the Chautauqua County shoreline.
While winds could briefly reach 15kts on the waters for a few hours
this afternoon, SCA conditions are not expected through the week.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ/JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...EAJ/JM
MARINE...EAJ/PP

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion