Jenkins, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

698
FXUS63 KDLH 050911
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
411 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy and even cooler today in the wake of the clipper with
  northwest winds gusting to 25-30 mph with a few spots gusting
  to 40 mph along with scattered light rain showers and
  sprinkles.
- Cooler, below-average conditions continue into this weekend.
  Areas of frost remain possible each night from tonight through
  Sunday night, but a widespread freeze is unlikely.
- Warming up back towards normal temperatures for mid-September
  next week, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Today - Tonight:
The surface low pressure that brought rain showers to much of
the Northland yesterday has now moved into the U.P. of Michigan,
with some light showers in NW WI expected to exit towards
sunrise today. However, colder cyclonic flow on the backside of
a vertically stacked low in northern Ontario along with some
more subtle embedded shortwave energy should keep some scattered
showers/sprinkles ongoing today before ending west to east as
the evening progresses. There will be some mixing going on in
the lower atmosphere given a tight pressure gradient, which
will kick off gusty northwest winds today into this evening,
with gusts of 20-30 mph and even some occasional gusts to 40
mph during the daytime hours due to enhancement from mixing and
showers bringing down momentum from stronger winds above the
ground. This mixing could also result in some evaporation of
rain in the showers, so many locations may just see virga
instead of accumulating precipitation, particularly in central
to east- central MN. The colder airmass in place over a warm
Lake Superior and larger interior MN lakes should also lead to
some lake-effect rain showers today into tonight, as well.
High temperatures today (mid 40s to mid 50s) will be about 20F
below normal given the colder airmass, cloud cover, and rain. If
the forecast highs hold, several locations could see new record
cold high temperatures for September 5th set today (see
"Climate Section" below). Low temperatures are once again
forecast to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s tonight, coldest in
the Iron Range and areas north. There is still some question to
how quickly winds weaken into tonight and how much/where cloud
cover will be hanging around, but the coldest areas could see
some areas of Frost. A Frost Advisory may be needed for these
coldest areas, but probabilities for widespread freezing
temperatures remain low (less than 30%).
Saturday - Saturday Night:
A bit more of a mix of clouds and sun on Saturday rather than
cloudy like today will be. This should allow highs during the
day to warm slightly into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.
While winds won`t be quite as strong on Saturday (daytime gusts
to 15-20 mph), mixing of the lower atmosphere will be even
deeper than on Friday. This is important to keep in mind as
vorticity with another mid/upper-level shortwave will be diving
across the Northland during the afternoon into early evening,
leading to additional potential for isolated to scattered light
showers and perhaps a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Given the
drier air, very little in the way of rainfall accumulations are
expected.
Saturday night looks like the best chance to see widespread
frost potential in the Northland as skies should become mostly
clear to partly cloudy and winds become light as surface high
pressure moves into the region. NBM probabilities for a freeze
(low temperature of 146.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
CLIMATE...JJM

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion