Jesse Owens Park, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

393
FXUS65 KTWC 051006
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
306 AM MST Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures remain near normal today, then will see a
warming trend through the upcoming work week. Slight chances for
precipitation arrive by late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Broad troughing persists over the western CONUS with southeastern
Arizona sitting on the southern periphery of the cyclonic flow
aloft. An embedded shortwave trough that crossed to the north
yesterday has fully exited, allowing mid-level pressure contours
to become more diffuse. This will lead to weaker wind gusts today
than yesterday, topping out at around 30 mph in southern
locations closer to the International Border. Temperatures will
remain near normal.
This coming work week will likely see a transition in the upper
level pattern as a southeastern ridge will gradually drift west
and build over the desert southwest. This will bring unseasonably
warm temperatures with highs becoming 4-8 degrees above normal
through much of the week. Mid-level flow becoming southeasterly
will likely usher in anomalous moisture the second half of the
week, potentially aided by tropical activity to our south in the
form of Tropical Storm Priscilla. Precipitation chances from this
moisture arrival remain questionable however as synoptic forcing
mechanisms will be weak and moisture depth still uncertain.
Measurable precipitation chances remain low and in the 10-20
percent range Thursday and Friday, with better chances most likely
kept to mountain locations. There may be a better shot in the
upcoming weekend to early next week however as ensemble models
show reasonable agreement in a Pacific trough approaching the
region.
&&
.AVIATION...
Surface winds become southwesterly 10-15 knots with gusts to 30
knots after 05/18Z, mainly in southern locations including KOLS-
KDUG. Lighter 8-13 knot winds to the north including KTUS and
KSAD. SKC through the period. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum relative humidities mainly 12-20 percent through Tuesday.
Breezy winds of 12-18 mph with gusts to 30 mph mainly through
Santa Cruz and southern Cochise counties, with lighter winds to
the north. Winds mainly on the lighter side to start the work
week, with potentially gusty southeasterly winds in the Gila
River Valley Wednesday. A push of moisture should begin to bring
up minimum relative humidities through the second half of the
week, however rain chances remain low through the remainder of the
work week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion