Jim Thorpe Park, California Weather Forecast Discussion

715
FXUS66 KLOX 261857
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1157 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...26/1156 AM.
A weak low pressure system will slowly move through southern
California through Saturday, bringing isolated showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rains and gusty
winds, along with coastal drizzle and cooler than normal
conditions. A large trough will move through the west coast early
next week maintaining cooler than normal conditions through
Tuesday and bringing light rain to northern areas. Warming and
drying are expected to follow through the end of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...26/1156 AM.
An upper level low pressure system, mostly cutoff from the
prevailing jet stream, is currently centered over Barstow, and
will continue to move towards the southeast through Saturday. This
low will create a rather complex weather scenario for the next 48
hours - with all sorts of potential weather on the table
including a rapidly deepening marine layer, drizzle, gusty winds,
showers, and thunderstorms.
he same tropical moisture that brought over 2000 lightning
strikes to the area earlier this week, is swirling around this low
(precipitable water-pwat values will hover around 1.5 inches
through the weekend). The combination of this moisture and the
destabilizing effects of the low will bring periods of isolated to
scattered showers and or thunderstorms over the region. While any
area could see something, the highest chances are over the
mountains and interior valleys (due to the offshore flow) and over
Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Coastal and valley areas are
included as anything that forms over the interior areas will be
moving towards the ocean with that offshore flow aloft. Saturday
remains the day with the best overall chance when the best
moisture (pwats 1.6 inches) and instability (lifted indices
around -3 to -4 over a large area) lines up. Upped the chances of
rain and thunderstorms over what the NBM is predicting, as the
the ensemble guidance shows significantly higher chances. While
the vast majority of the area will see minimal impacts with
rainfall under 0.10 inches, there will likely be an isolated cell
or two (or three) that produces some localized impactful downburst
winds (upwards of 50-60 mph possible) or brief heavy rain. The
latest high resolution model guidance has pockets of hourly rain
rates of 0.50-0.75 inches per hour, mainly focused over the
Ventura and Los Angeles County Mountains. This means that there is
a low but present threat of flash flooding and burn scar debris
flows if the heaviest cell forms over a vulnerable area.
On the coastal side of the ranges, the low pressure system and
strengthening coastal eddy will continue to deepen the marine
layer each day through Saturday or Sunday. Areas of drizzle are
looking more and more likely - with some wet roads expected.
Hilly areas could see light accumulations.
With cooler air mass associated with the low, and the ample
clouds, temperatures will remain much below normal (by 6 to 12
degrees).
Outside of thunderstorms, locally gusty winds will impact areas
prone to enhanced northwest to north flow, though wind speeds
should remain below advisory thresholds.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...26/1156 AM.
A cold low pressure system currently brewing over Alaska, is
expected to drop into British Columbia early next week and spawn a
deep trough off the west coast. This trough will form a vigorous
cold front or two that will sweep down the Washington and Oregon
Coast Sunday through Monday, and through California later Monday
through Wednesday. These fronts will weaken significantly by the
time they reach the southern half of California - with very little
left over for us. There is a 10-40% chance of any measurable
rain, with the higher chances over the Central Coast. Any
accumulations should be light and generally under one-quarter inch.
There will likely be some gusty west winds for the middle of next
week after the front moves through.
Temperatures will remain well below normal through the middle of
next week, but will steadily warm up after as high pressure aloft
builds in.
&&
.AVIATION...26/1754Z.
At 1715Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3300 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 5800 feet with a temperature of 17 C.
Moderate to high confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.
Low to moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Timing of flight
cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours, and conditions may be off
by 1 flight category than forecast at times.
In addition, there is a 15% chance of thunderstorms Sat afternoon
and evening for much of the area south of SLO County for Sat
afternoon and evening.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance
of a couple hours of VFR conds thru late this afternoon. An east
wind component of 8 kt is possible until as late as 20Z today.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in forecast. Cigs are forecast to be
between OVC015-OVC025 05Z-17Z. Otherwise, VFR cigs are expected.
&&
.MARINE...26/856 AM.
Winds and seas are likely to remain below SCA level through
Wednesday.
Thunderstorms will be possible south of Point Conception Saturday
into Saturday night.
Seas will peaking at around 6 to 9 feet on Saturday for the Outer
waters. Sunday into early next week, southerly swell up to 4 to 7
feet may impact all of the coastal waters.
&&
.BEACHES...26/1058 AM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell will develop across the
coastal waters Sunday into early next week, generated by
Hurricane Narda. Hazardous rip currents and elevated surf are
likely for south-facing beaches, especially across Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties as well as Avila Beach and Port San Luis for the
Central Coasts. Additionally, particularly vulnerable south-
facing beaches may see shallow coastal flooding over normally dry
beach areas.
As a result, a Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for all
exposed south-facing beaches for Sunday through Wednesday. Surf is
expected to be 4 to 7 feet with local max sets up to 8 feet,
highest on the Central Coast.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Sunday morning through
      Wednesday afternoon for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Kittell/Cohen
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Schoenfeld/Sirard
BEACHES...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Kittell/Cohen
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion