Jimmy Smith Lake Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

562
FXUS65 KPIH 151044
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
444 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers with a few thunderstorms today, lingering
  into Thursday especially along and east of Interstate 15.
- Nearly all snow accumulation will remain above about 7,000
  feet, with limited travel impacts possible at a few passes.
- Drier weather for most of southeast Idaho Friday and Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
A wet day remains on tap today as multiple rounds of rain,
showers, high-elevation snow, and isolated thunderstorms
affect southeast Idaho. Snow levels will range from 6,500 feet
to 8,000 feet, with nearly all snow accumulation confined above
about 7,000 feet. For those traveling, the potential remains
for slick spots over some mountain passes, especially during
colder overnight/early morning periods. And, for those venturing
into the backcountry...over a foot of snow is likely at the
highest elevations of some of the mountains surrounding the Wood
River Valley region. Otherwise...aside from the fact that it
will be raining at times...overall impacts from this system will
be quite limited for most population centers. Cooler high
temperatures today will run about 5-10 degrees below normal for
mid-October...and similarly...5-10 degrees below yesterday`s
readings.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The day begins Thursday with an upper low centered near the far SE
corner of the Gem State. Thursday will remain well below normal
temperature wise with 40s and low 50s across the western half of the
area with 30s and 40s for our eastern zones (closer to the low).
We`ll see precip and clouds begin to taper off from west to east
throughout the day but areas along and east of I-15 will have to
wait until later in the afternoon or evening before conditions start
to improve. Cold temperatures in the eastern highlands will support
some accumulating snowfall across the higher terrain (above 7000 ft)
on Thursday. By daybreak Friday, upper level troughing will quickly
transition to a ridge allowing for a brief warming trend Friday into
Sunday with mostly dry conditions and mostly sunny weather through
the first part of the day on Sunday. Temperatures will remain on the
cooler side of normal Fri and Sat but get closer to seasonal norms
by Sunday but that`s when the weather pattern looks to change once
again. Models show a potent trough once again moving into the
Pacific NW  which will bring precip and clouds back into the
forecast for eastern Idaho by as early as Sunday afternoon but
especially for much of the day Monday and into Tuesday. Along with
the precip, we`ll see much colder temperatures once again for Monday
and Tuesday with highs running well below normal along with valley
rain/mountain snow chances. Could even see some valley precip change
over to snow Monday night into Tuesday AM but it`s still unclear how
much precip will remain by that point. Either way, an active fall
weather pattern is expected to continue across the region into the
third week of October.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 444 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
The wettest period has begun with increasing moisture moving
into southeast Idaho, resulting in areas of rain, showers, and
mist that will continue on and off today, tonight, and Thursday
morning. VFR to borderline MVFR cigs are generally expected,
but hits deep into MVFR will be possible under heavier showers
and rain bands. A few thunderstorms continue along the WY border
corridor so we maintain VCTS this morning at KDIJ, expanding
back to all terminals this afternoon. KSUN will start improving
and clearing out around 09z/3am tonight, with that
clearing/improving trend slow to move west to east across the
region on Thursday. KDIJ is not likely to clear out Thursday,
and in fact may approach IFR cigs near or just after the end of
the current TAF period around daybreak Thursday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Periods of wetting rains and high-elevation snow will continue
today and tonight, lingering Thursday especially along and east
of Interstate 15 (but overall ending from west to east over the
course of the day). Drier conditions will briefly take hold for
Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...01
FIRE WEATHER...01

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion