Joe Creek, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

343
FXUS63 KABR 131139
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
639 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy to areas of fog will persist over and east of the Sisseton
Hills/Prairie Coteau this morning.
- Temperatures today will be around 10 degrees above normal over
portions of east central South Dakota.
- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather over
central South Dakota through Sunday morning, before expanding to
eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night. Hail up to an inch in diameter and wind gusts up to 60
mph are the primary threats.
- There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive heavy
rainfall over portions of north central South Dakota through
tonight, and over central South Dakota (mainly west of the Missouri
River) Sunday into Sunday night. The main concern will be rain
falling over the same location/training storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Warm, muggy air remains in place this morning with temperatures at
08Z in the 60s, with low 70s south of PIR. Patchy to areas of fog
remain over and east of the Sisseton Hills/Prairie Coteau this
morning. At 09Z the visibility at ATY was less than 2 miles, with
area webcams showing lower visibility north and east.
The current surface weather map shows the area of low pressure along
the south central SD/north central NE border near VTN. There is a
marginal risk for severe storms across central South Dakota through
the day Sunday, and across the forecast area Sunday night. If strong
storms develop, the main concern would be damaging wind gusts up to
around 60 mph and large hail up to around an inch in diameter.
Showers and storms continue north of the low mainly north of a line
form Mission Ridge to Onida. We will continue to monitor this area
of precipitation as it moves over some locations that already
received heavy rain in excess of 3" across western Corson County.
The HRRR has done a fairly good job this morning with the areal
coverage of the showers and storms, and will be integrated into the
ongoing forecast. The overall trend is for the more steady
precipitation to shift into ND by daybreak, with more spotty showers
and a few storms lingering over central SD through the daytime hours
today. Again, the focus for excessive rainfall will likely be over
portions of north central SD, and mainly Corson and Dewey Counties
which are highlighted in the WPC excessive rainfall forecast for
today/tonight.
The surface low will slide a bit east, mainly around Redfield and
south by 03Z Sunday and drift north overnight as a reinforcing low
over southwestern NE moves into south central SD Sunday afternoon.
There are some differences in how storms later this evening and
overnight will evolve, with the most likely scenario being strong to
potentially severe storms again over central SD and generally west of
the MO River. Timing/location/intensity of these storms vary
significantly but there are some common themes. By 03Z Sunday the
main area of concern looks to be south of PIR before expanding and
spreading north again through the night. We will be watching for
embedded stronger storms and training of storms that could lead to
flooding tonight into Sunday morning. The threat over central South
Dakota through the day Sunday will expand to eastern South Dakota
and western MN Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
By 12Z Monday the surface low will be over far northern SD, but
mainly across ND, with a trough lingering across eastern SD through
at least 00Z Wednesday. There are some small differences on the
timing of the eastern exit of the trough. The overall trend will be
lower/near normal temperatures by Wednesday afternoon through the
rest of the period. After mainly dry weather late Monday afternoon
and Monday night, a 40-50% chance of showers and storms will return
for later Tuesday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
IFR to LIFR ceilings continue at ATY with MVFR to VFR fog through
around 15Z. The main concern is thunderstorm activity over central
SD. The storms south of MBG have a history of producing wind gusts
of 30-40kts. Have increased winds at MBG. Timing of additional
storms remains difficult over central SD, with the highest chances
again tonight when -shra or PROB30 thunderstorms have been
included.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion