Johnson Cemetery Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

524
FXUS64 KMRX 141103
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
703 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 649 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue for the
  rest of the week.
- A system will bring a return of showers and possibly some
  thunderstorms to the region Saturday night through Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Currently early this morning, broad ridging is in place across the
region with high pressure well to our north. This general pattern
will continue through the middle of the week, keeping temperatures
mild during the day and seasonally cool overnight. Rain is also not
anticipated during this time. By late in the week, the pattern will
begin to shift with high pressure weakening as it drifts to our
east.
Focus will turn towards deepening troughing to our west with
frontogenesis expected. An increasing negative tilt is indicated by
many sources as troughing shifts eastward. Ahead of the approaching
front, increasing southerly flow is expected throughout the day on
Saturday. Models still differ on the exact timing and evolution of
everything, in addition to moisture advection in our area. This
setup will be conducive for thunderstorm development with a severe
risk already outlined well to our west. However, the threat is a lot
more uncertain in our area due to the potential early morning timing
in some guidance and the front likely not arriving until sometime on
Sunday. A slower solution that allows for convection during the day
on Sunday would be more conducive for severe weather. The evolution
will also affect the strength of a potential low-level jet for
mountain winds. With the continued uncertainty, low probability HWO
wording will be maintained. Drier and notably cooler conditions are
expected by next Monday behind the front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Dense fog has developed at TRI. Elsewhere, fog is patchy with
only a few sites reporting vis restrictions. Fog will lift an hour
or two after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Fog
will be possible again tomorrow morning at TRI just before
daybreak. Some low end gusts around 15 or so will be possible this
afternoon as northerly winds continue.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  56  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  77  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       77  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              73  47  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...McD

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion