Johnson Park, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

899
FXUS63 KICT 212326
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures expected for Monday.
- Storm chances return for late Monday night into Tuesday
  morning with large hail likely with the stronger storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Water vapor imagery currently shows upper shortwave tracking
across eastern KS and eastern OK with a more robust upper
circulation tracking across the Upper Mississippi Valley. Last
but not least, some additional shortwave energy is starting to
dig across the Pacific Northwest.
Showers/storms will continue pushing east this evening as the upper
impulse moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley. So for Mon we should
see a lull in activity as our next upper system start to dive over
the Northern Intermountain. By 00z Tue, this upper impulse will
be digging across the Great Basin and eventually into the
Central Rockies. As the same time, a strong southern stream jet
will develop from the Desert Southwest into the OK/TX
Panhandles. Ahead of this impulse, 850-700mb theta-e advection
will rapidly increase across western KS along with much of
southwest KS in the left exit region of an impressive upper
jet. This will result in storms developing Mon night across
western KS. Storms are then expected to migrate east into our
forecast area generally after 08z. Most models agree on
impressive elevated instability in the 1500-2500J/kg range along
with ample deep layer shear. So large hail will be likely with
any of the stronger storms late Mon night into Tue morning.
By Tue afternoon, upper impulse will be situated over eastern CO
with a very strong upper jet remaining from northern NM into
southwest KS. Upper wave is then forecast to slide across KS Tue
night. This will keep decent rain chances in, with the highest
potential during the Tue night into Wed morning time frame. Upper
wave will be moving into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Wed night,
which will push the better precip chances east of the forecast
area. This will leave the Plains in north/northwest flow aloft
for the end of the work week which will get us back to dry
conditions and seasonal temps.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions expected tonight, then fog and low clouds to
impact much of southern and eastern Kansas overnight into Monday
morning.
Currently, clouds are generally clearing while light winds
remain out of the south. Generally speaking, VFR conditions
should prevail through the first 6-8 hours of the TAF period.
However, moist soils, light winds, and clear skies may allow for
widespread low clouds or fog to develop, especially along and
east of the Kansas Turnpike. LIFR or worse vis cats and IFR or
worse cigs are possible, especially between 10Z and 15Z.
After 15Z, conditions should gradually improve, and VFR
conditions are expected to prevail Monday afternoon.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion