Jones Island State Park National Wildlife Refuge Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS66 KSEW 151555
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
855 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Upper level ridging over the area will bring another
dry and seasonal day to western Washington today. Showers will
return Thursday into Friday as a weak frontal system moves through
the area. A stronger, wetter system will move into western
Washington over the weekend bringing gusty winds, lowland rain,
and mountain snow to the area. Unsettled conditions look to
continue across the area into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...No public forecast
updates. See below for aviation updates. 27
Another dry and seasonal day is on tap for western Washington today
as upper level ridging continues to nudge into the area from the
Pacific. Cold morning lows and light winds may bring another round
of frost formation to the interior lowlands early this morning.
Offshore winds will transition back to onshore this morning and
skies will be mostly sunny with a few high clouds streaming in
overhead. Afternoon high temperatures will climb into the upper 50s
to low 60s.
The upper ridge over the area will start to flatten tonight into
Thursday as an upper level trough makes its way across the Gulf
of Alaska. A weak frontal system at the surface will then approach
western Washington Thursday and move inland Thursday night into
Friday, bringing the return of showers to the region. No significant
impacts are expected with this system, as rainfall amounts look
to remain rather light- with only a few hundredths of an inch
expected for most locations. Morning lows will be in the upper 30s
to low 40s for the area on Thursday and in the mid 40s to low 50s
on Friday, while afternoon highs both days will be in the upper
50s to low 60s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A more active pattern is
expected this weekend as a wetter, stronger frontal system is
slated to move into western Washington Saturday night into Sunday.
This system will bring the next round of more substantial rain to
the area, mountain snow, and gusty winds. Snow levels look to rise
between 8000-10000 ft in the warm sector on Saturday, before
falling down to 4000-5000 ft on Sunday. While a range of outcomes
still exists, guidance continues to suggest that the highest
precipitation amounts will be along the coast, Olympics, and
across the Central and North Cascades.
Ensembles still show some uncertainty in the pattern heading into
early next week, however latest guidance suggests that Monday
could see a brief drying trend as a transient ridge moves overhead.
Unsettled conditions look to return by Tuesday, though, as additional
systems move towards the area.
14
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR this morning with isolated areas of
patchy fog. Mostly clear conditions will prevail today with
generally northerly winds 10 kt or less. A switch to onshore flow
later this evening will usher marine stratus into the interior by
early Thursday morning with areas of MVFR to LIFR low ceilings.
KSEA...VFR with mostly clear skies through today and tonight. Winds
out of the NE turning more NW  in the afternoon 5 to 10 kt . Winds
switching southerly 4 to 8 knots after 03z Thursday. Marine stratus
looks to draw near on Thursday morning with low ceilings.
&&
.MARINE...Northerly flow across the waters will continue to weaken
as an area of low pressure near The Great Basin pushes off and away
eastward, and upper-ridging builds over the region. A weak front
will arrive Thursday night into Friday with a modest increase in
coastal seas but no impacts are expected. However, a much stronger
frontal system will reach the waters Saturday night into Sunday with
headlines expected for most of the waters. Coastal seas will build
into the double digits this weekend and could exceed 15 feet by
later Sunday and remain above 10 ft into early next week.
McMillian
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Eastern Kitsap
     County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Lake Crescent Area
     Including US 101-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King
     Counties-Northern Washington Coast-Western Strait of Juan
     de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.
PZ...None.
&&
$$

NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion