Justus, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

498
FXUS61 KCLE 061758
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
158 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough lingers over and near Lake Erie through Sunday as a
ridge attempts to build from the north-central United States and
Lower Missouri Valley. The ridge is expected to impact all of our
region Sunday night through this Monday as the core of the ridge
moves from near the Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley toward New
England.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cyclonic SW`erly to W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect our region through tonight and the
upper-reaches of a cold front continue to depart our region to
the east through this late morning. At the surface, a trough
lingers over and near Lake Erie as a ridge attempts to build
from the north-central United States and Lower MO Valley. Net
low-level CAA persists behind the cold front. Accordingly,
despite intervals of sunshine, highs will reach only the mid
60`s to lower 70`s late this afternoon. Overnight lows tonight
should settle into mainly the mid 40`s to mid 50`s around
daybreak Sunday.
The release of weak potential instability via moist isentropic
ascent along the upper-reaches of the cold front will generate
primarily light isolated to scattered rain showers. These showers
will exit our CWA generally from west to east through this late
morning given the above-mentioned progression of the front.
Behind the front-related precip, mainly fair weather is
expected through tonight as stabilizing subsidence accompanies
the aforementioned surface ridge. However, as 850 mb temperatures
continue to cool behind the front, a WSW`erly mean low-level
flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air over and downwind of ~21C
Lake Erie and the development of weak to moderate lake-induced
CAPE (LICAPE) are expected to allow a band of lake-effect rain
showers, heavy at times, to develop late this morning and
persist through sunset this evening. These showers will stream
ENE`ward over Lake Erie and across portions of western NY,
primarily. However, frictional surface convergence and
associated ascent along the southern shore may allow some of the
lake-effect rain showers to skirt the shore in Ashtabula
County, OH and Erie County, PA at times. Tonight, the mean
low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind of
Lake Erie, amidst moderate lake-induced instability, will veer
gradually from WSW`erly to W`erly and then to WNW`erly by
daybreak Sunday as a low-level shortwave trough axis sweeps
E`ward. Accordingly, lake-effect rain showers, heavy at times,
will settle S`ward into the primary snowbelt and vicinity in our
CWA.
On Sunday, cyclonic mid/upper-level flow veers from WSW`erly to
NW`erly as a prominent shortwave trough axis moves E`ward across
the Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley, including our CWA. At
the surface, the aforementioned ridge continues to build slowly
from the north-central United States and Lower MO Valley. Fair
weather persists across most of our CWA amidst stabilizing
subsidence accompanying the ridge. However, lake-effect rain
showers, heavy at times, should continue to stream ESE`ward
over/downwind of Lake Erie amidst a WNW`erly mean low-level
flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air and impact our primary
snowbelt counties and vicinity. Greater and deeper low-level
moisture should contribute to an increase in LICAPE, including
within the primary electrical charge separation zone (the
portion of the LICAPE profile spanning the lake-effect
cumuliform cloud temperature range from 0C to -20C), which
should permit the development of isolated lake-effect
thunderstorms. Late afternoon highs should reach only the lower
60`s to lower 70`s as net low-level CAA persists.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Aloft, a ridge affects our region during this period as the
ridge axis moves from the north-central United States toward New
England and the Canadian Maritimes. At the surface, the ridge
continues to affect our region as the core of the ridge moves
from the southern Great Lakes region and vicinity to Atlantic
waters new Newfoundland. Primarily fair weather is expected as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. However, lingering
and light lake-effect rain showers streaming SE`ward over and
downwind of Lake Erie Sunday evening should end around midnight
Sunday night as LICAPE wanes due, in part to a lowering subsidence
inversion and low-level dry air advection.
The above-mentioned weather pattern evolution at the surface and
aloft will allow net low-level WAA to impact our region. Low
temperatures in mainly the lower 40`s to lower 50`s around
daybreak Monday morning and Tuesday morning should moderate
slightly to lows mainly in the mid 40`s to mid 50`s around
daybreak Wednesday. Late afternoon highs should reach the mid
60`s to lower 70`s on Monday and mainly the mid to upper 70`s on
Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The ridge at the surface and aloft should continue to depart
E`ward on Wednesday and be accompanied by fair weather. Abundant
sunshine, daytime heating, and continued net low-level WAA
should allow late afternoon highs to reach the 70`s to lower
80`s. During Wednesday night through Thursday morning, a
shortwave trough axis aloft and attendant/weak surface cold
front should sweep SE`ward through our region. Latest trends in
model guidance and our official forecast continue to indicate
rather dry air at and near the surface should prevent measurable
rainfall from accompanying the passage of the cold front and
shortwave trough axis. Lows should reach mainly the upper 40`s
to mid 50`s around daybreak Thursday.
During the rest of Thursday through Friday, NW`erly flow aloft
is expected as a ridge aloft builds slowly from the central
United States. At the surface, the ridge should build from James
Bay and vicinity. The anticyclonic circulation of the
surface ridge will allow N`erly to NE`erly surface winds
associated with net low-level cold/dry air advection to impact
our region. Accordingly, late afternoon highs in the 70`s to
near 80F on Thursday will be followed by late afternoon highs in
mainly the upper 60`s to mid 70`s on Friday. In between, lows
should reach mainly the mid 40`s to mid 50`s around daybreak
Friday. Fair weather should persist amidst stabilizing subsidence.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Cool northwest flow across the Great Lakes region has allowed
for mid-level cloud cover to develop this afternoon mainly
across Lower Michigan and along the Lake Erie lakeshore.
Ceilings remain VFR with SCT/BKN cloud deck between 4-6 kft.
Expect for any afternoon cloud cover to erode later this
evening. Terminals should vastly remain dry and VFR through the
TAF window, but can`t rule out lake effect rain showers to reach
KERI and KCLE early Sunday morning. Conditions should remain
VFR in lake effect showers, though there remains the potential
for MVFR to occur at KERI.
Westerly to northwesterly winds 8-12 knots will occasionally
gust to 18-22 knots through sunset tonight. Winds will then turn
southwesterly and diminish to 5 knots or less. Winds return
westerly to northwesterly Sunday morning generally between 8-10
knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lake effect rain and clouds in
NW PA and NE OH on Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Elevated westerly to northwesterly winds 15-25 knots will
remain over Lake Erie through Sunday night. Onshore flow will
allow for wave heights to build to 3-6 feet through the weekend.
A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement remains in
effect across the central and eastern basins and corresponding
lakeshore counties through Sunday evening. Waterspouts remain
possible in any lake effect rain showers tonight into Sunday.
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the Great
Lakes region Sunday night and persist across the Northeast into
early next week. Winds become light and variable on Monday
before favoring an offshore component Tuesday and Wednesday as
the high builds overhead.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for OHZ010>012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion