Kaktovik, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

880
FXAK69 PAFG 250005
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
405 PM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and quiet weather continues across Northern Alaska
today, as a broad upper level troughing pattern remains in place.
A brief transitory ridge of high pressure building into the
Interior today has supported warmer temperatures and more sunshine
across the board, as isolated to scattered rain and snow showers
remain confined to the Alaska Range and Western Arctic Coast.
Changes are on the way for Thursday and Friday, as we track a
series of lows working through and around the Bering Sea. The
first being a low that works east out of the Bering Sea through
the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday, as a secondary
low works southeast out of Siberia through Southwest Alaska on
Friday. These two systems will help support increased
precipitation chances across the Central and Eastern Interior
north to the Arctic Coast starting Thursday, in addition to
bringing an increase in rain/snow showers along the West Coast.
Overall with both of these lows, precipitation amounts look to
remain light overall, with the only noticeable increase in wind
being along the West Coast on Friday as the low as stronger winds
build in out of the north. Following a midweek warmup,
temperatures will see a cooling trend return into early next week
as precipitation chances continue.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warmer and sunnier today, with highs in the 40s to low 50s as
  conditions remain dry outside of showers in the Alaska Range.
- Lows continue to reach near to below freezing, supporting more
  widespread frost/freeze conditions, including the potential for
  the first freeze at Fairbanks International Airport.
- Next system builds into the area tonight into Thursday,
  supporting scattered rain and snow showers through the weekend.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Quiet and dry conditions continue today with a mix of sun,
  clouds, and isolated showers along the West Coast.
- Highs through the weekend in the upper 30s to low 40s.
- Next system moves in from Siberia late Thursday into
  Friday, supporting isolated to scattered rain and snow showers
  along the West Coast as the Western Interior remains dry.
- Increase in winds out of the north for Friday along the West
  Coast as this system works southeast across Southwest Alaska.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers along the
  Western Arctic Coast today, with light accumulations expected.
  Dry conditions continue in the Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic
  Coast.
- Next system moves in Thursday into Friday, supporting rain/snow
  chances through the weekend, primarily across the North Slope
  and Central/Eastern Brooks Range.
- Highs in the low to mid 30s along the Arctic Coast, teens to
  low 30s in the Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.
Early afternoon satellite imagery across Northern Alaska shows a
mix of sun and clouds as a broad upper level troughing pattern
continues. A brief transitory ridge of high pressure has brought
warmer and sunnier conditions today across the Interior, as
conditions remain dry across the board outside of isolated showers
along the West Coast and Arctic Coast. Our next rain/snow chances
return to the area Thursday and Friday, as a series of lows work
through and around the Bering Sea. The first will be a low that
works east out of the Bering Sea through the Aleutians into the
Gulf of Alaska on Thursday, as a secondary low works southeast out
of Siberia through Southwest Alaska on Friday. These two systems
will help support increased precipitation chances across the
Central and Eastern Interior north to the Arctic Coast starting
Thursday, in addition to bringing an increase in rain/snow showers
along the West Coast. Overall with both of these lows,
precipitation amounts look to remain light overall, with the only
noticeable increase in wind being along the West Coast on Friday
as the low as stronger winds build in out of the north. More
moderate precipitation totals are most likely across the Central
and Eastern Interior northeast to the Arctic Coast, where ECMWF,
CMC, and GFS ensembles continue to show the most widespread
precipitation totals through the weekend. Following a midweek
warmup, temperatures will see a cooling trend return through the
weekend week as precipitation chances continue. Given this cooler
airmass building in, we will see increasing chances for snow
across our lower elevations, as is par for the course this time of
year as we finish out September.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Sunday through next Wednesday.
Rain and snow chances will continue into early next week across
the Central/Eastern Interior, Alaska/Brooks Ranges, and North
Slope, as drier conditions return to Western Alaska. Ensemble
model guidance remains in reasonable agreement on taking a low
over Southwest Alaska on Friday into the Gulf of Alaska for the
weekend, as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Bering Sea.
This solution would support continued moisture transport into
Interior, aided by an arctic trough working across Northern Alaska
during the same time the low is down in the Gulf. Associated with
this arctic trough, colder temperatures will continue to build
in, especially overnight lows, which will support increasing
chances for snow across our lower elevations.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
&&
$$
MacKay

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion