Karnes City, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

430
FXUS64 KEWX 042254
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
554 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures Friday.
- Rain chances return this weekend with the potential for
  locally heavy rain and flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A deep upper level trough over the eastern half of the country
has northwesterly flow over Texas. A weak pressure gradient at
the surface has mainly light winds mostly from the southwest
across our CWA. Dewpoint temperatures are a few degrees lower
and temperatures are a few degrees higher than 24 hours ago. In
the short term the upper trough will lift off to the northeast
allowing the subtropical ridge to build back over Texas. While
this shift occurs the low level flow will become more
southeasterly bringing moister air back to the region. This will
mean warmer lows Friday which will be back to near normal. The
upper ridge will keep the weather dry Friday. With the winds
more southeasterly temperatures will be a couple of degrees
lower than today. Friday night will be about the same as
tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Another deep upper trough will dig down from the Central Plains
to the southeastern states Saturday turning the upper flow back
to northwesterly over Texas. A weak frontal boundary will move
into our CWA bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Over the past couple of days models have been projecting
moisture from Pacific TS Lorena into Texas, but they are
starting to trend a little drier today. The official storm track
now has Lorena dissipating over the Pacific off the coast of the
Baja Peninsula and this may mean less moist air moving across
Mexico. The NBM still has high POPs for the Sunday/Monday
timeframe and it still looks like there will be showers and
thunderstorms with the front stalled in the area. However, rain
amounts are beginning to trend a bit lower. Uncertainty is quite
high and WPC still has a slight (level 2 of 3) risk for
excessive rainfall, but it may take another cycle before we`re
comfortable changing that. That forecast time is still several
days away. The front will remain in the region and rain chances
will linger into Tuesday. The upper ridge will build back over
Texas and dry the weather for the middle of next week. After a
couple of cooler days to start the week temperatures will climb
back up to near normal mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
VFR conditions are forecast through the period. High clouds will
continue to move over South Central Texas from the northwest
tonight. Additionally, a few low clouds are possible near sunrise.
Winds remain light under 10 knots from the south-southeast to east-
southeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75 100  74  90 /   0   0  10  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73 100  75  91 /   0   0  10  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72 100  74  92 /   0   0  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            73  96  71  83 /   0   0  10  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 101  78  94 /   0  10  10  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  99  73  87 /   0   0  10  30
Hondo Muni Airport             72 100  74  92 /   0   0  10  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        72 101  73  92 /   0   0  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  98  74  92 /   0   0   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       75 100  76  93 /   0   0  10  30
Stinson Muni Airport           76 101  77  94 /   0   0  10  30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...27

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion