Karnes County Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

018
FXUS64 KEWX 130555
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1255 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler mornings and warm afternoons through the week.
- Chances for rain (15%-30%) continue to increase next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Upper level high pressure that was centered over west TX has now
moved south into northern Mexico while the surface high remains
located along the Texas/Louisiana border. Southeasterly flow
should continue resulting in an advection of slightly more
moisture for our area. Though moisture increases we should still
see another cool morning for Monday. However, lows should be a
touch warmer than yesterday morning with mainly lower 60s
expected. Highs are expected to be similar to Sundays with many
areas reaching the lower 90s. Expect a near repeat for Tuesday`s
forecast as high pressure slowly pushes off to the east allowing
for continued southeasterly flow that eventually becomes
predominantly out of the east once the surface high moves away
from our area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
The upper level ridge continues to remain nearby through the week
centering over or just east of our area. Global models continue to
remain in great agreement indicating this high shunting all
disturbances to our north and west keeping us dry for the week. Well
above normal high temperatures should continue into this week with
highs expected to approach and/or exceed 90 degrees. Confidence is
increasing that we could be in for a pattern change for this coming
weekend with even a decent shot of rain as the GFS and Euro seem to
indicate as a cold front makes its way into our region from the
north. This is still quite a few days out so things can and likely
will change. However, for now our pattern of warmer afternoon highs
and cooler mornings looks to continue through the work week with our
next shot of rain possibly coming next weekend. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Forecast lower level profiles show increased moisture late tonight
into Monday morning and Monday night into Tuesday morning. HREF
probabilities of MVFR CIGs of 40-80% favor the Hill Country and
Edwards Plateau with lesser probabilities along the Escarpment at
the TAF sites. Expect more of a SCTVBKN pattern and have reverted
back to TEMPOs at the sites. Otherwise, VFR flying tonight through
Tuesday. Due to a stronger boundary layer flow, S to SE winds of 8
to 14 KTs with a few gusts to 25 KTs during the day will linger
longer through the evening hours, then decrease to 5 to 10 KTs
overnight into early morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  64  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  62  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     90  62  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            87  62  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  70  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             90  64  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  61  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  61  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  66  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           91  66  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...04

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion