Kasaan, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

542
FXAK67 PAJK 220002
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
402 PM AKDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SHORT TERM.../ Through Monday night / A strong developing low
will move out of the north pacific will move north through the
eastern gulf to near Cross Sound before moving onshore and then
into the Northwest Canada. The low is expected to deepen to
between the upper 970s and low 980s. Moderate to strong winds are
expect around the low and with the front. Sustained winds of 20
to 35 mph with front for the southern coastal and into Clarence
strait area with gust to to 60 mph for some of the areas. Wind in
the northern portions staying lighter and northerly until about
Monday afternoon when front reaches Lynn Canal area then will will
switch to a southerly and pick for Monday night. The big burst of
winds lasts 6 to 9 hours as it passes through the region. Some
cities may end up with gusts to 60 mph so High wind warning have
been issued overnight into Monday.
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/ The active onshore
flow continues with light to moderate showers lasting throughout the
panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Some breaks between
showers may occur Tuesday night for the far southern panhandle
before the next system moves in, though chances will remain higher
for the central and northern panhandle. Another low moves into the
Gulf by Wednesday, first bringing  heavy rainfall to the northeast
Gulf coast and Yakutat area by late Wednesday morning into midday.
The front will move eastward across the panhandle, bringing moderate
to heavy rainfall Wednesday evening through Thursday. So far the
model guidance for the rain and QPF amounts are largely in
agreement, with the highest amount of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 24 hours
along the NE Gulf Coast and Yakutat area for Wednesday as the low
looks to linger over the NW Gulf coastline off Kenai Peninsula
through Friday. The rest of the panhandle will largely see between
1 to 2 inches of rain in 24 hours both Wednesday and Thursday.
The winds for this system largely look to be just under gale
force, with the most likelihood for gales being along the Gulf
Coast Wednesday morning. This however may increase as recent
guidance has slowly been increasing the winds off the coastline.
Winds will decrease Thursday into Friday as the low begins to
weaken, though chances for rain continue largely across the
panhandle through Friday, with the highest chances remaining in
the central and southern parts of the panhandle.
&&
.AVIATION.../through Monday/ Higher variability in conditions
across the panhandle than had been previously anticipated, as
as lingering showers and low clouds send many areas careening
between VFR and IFR conditions. Do still expect some general
improvement from 00z to 06z, with MVFR to VFR for conditions
becoming more likely for many sites as the showers will become
fewer in number around the area.
For tonight and into tomorrow, from 06z onwards, a near storm
force low will advance from the south and bear down on the
panhandle. As this low tracks northward, VFR will be replaced with
MVFR conditions. And by 06 to 10z, LLWS and strengthening wind
speeds will be present in the far southern panhandle. These winds
will race northward, so anticipating strong LLWS reaching as far
as the Icy Strait corridor, with somewhat less intense LLWS
reaching into the northern panhandle. Farther up, the possibility
of stronger turbulence will be present, especially for areas from
the Icy Strait Corridor southward, though the possibility of
turbulence extending further north Monday afternoon may be
present. For additional details, please refer to the Alaska
Aviation weather Unit.
In the wake of the system, anticipate diminishing LLWS and wind
speeds in general, especially through the second half of Monday.
Showers will continue to remain prevalent as onshore flow remains,
resulting in occasional periods of IFR conditions for TAF Sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Inner Channels: Main focus is a low and front through the eastern
gulf late Sunday into Monday. A strong southerly push of winds is
expected to move south to north through the inner channels
starting late Sunday night. Min to moderate gale force winds (up
to 40 kt) and seas up to 9 ft are likely for some areas,
especially Clarence Strait, Sumner, Southern Chatham, and Stephens
Passage. Winds and seas for the south will start to diminish
Monday afternoon. Lynn Canal will be the last place to see the
winds, and will even see north winds possibly up to 20 kt Monday
before there is a rapid switch to southerly Monday afternoon with
winds then increasing to 30 kt. Lynn Canal will also be the last
place to see the winds and seas diminish with winds of up to 25 kt
possibly lasting into Monday night.
Gulf Waters: Things will rapidly change into Sunday night as wind
direction switches from SW winds of 15 to 25 kt to E for many
areas ahead of a strong low moving north out of the north Pacific.
The low will take a track almost due north just east of 140 W
strengthening to 980 mb and moving inland near Cross Sound by
Monday afternoon. An area of moderate to strong W gales to 45 kt
will likely be located on the south side of the low, tracking
north with the low, and will mainly be observed E of 140 W
longitude late Sunday night into Monday. Seas are expected to
increase to near 15 to 20 ft for areas E of 140 W mainly due to
wind wave (though a 5 ft SW swell will be present). Winds and seas
will diminish into Monday night with SW flow of 20 kt returning
to much of the gulf waters. However the extended SW flow will
bring some higher swells (up to 7 ft) from the SW into Tuesday
keeping wave heights up to 10 ft into mid week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A band of heavy rain moves through late Sunday. This
will result in elevated streams and the potential for minor
flooding. This will be followed by a strong system on Monday which
will bring with it strong winds and more heavy rain. Rainfall
totals of between 3-5 inches are expected during this time, with
higher amounts possible in isolated areas and at elevation.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Monday through Monday morning for
     AKZ323-327.
     High Wind Warning from 7 AM to noon AKDT Monday for AKZ323-327.
     Strong Wind Monday morning for AKZ324.
     Flood Watch through late Monday night for AKZ325.
     Strong Wind Monday morning for AKZ325.
     High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ325.
     High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ328-330-
     332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031>036-641>643-661>663.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-053-644-651-652-664-
     671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDROLOGY...Bezenek
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NWS AJK Office Area Forecast Discussion