Kean University Of New Jersey East Campus, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

303
FXUS61 KOKX 230632
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
232 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure shifts further out into the Atlantic today.
A cold front approaches the region from the northwest into tonight,
before stalling nearby on Wednesday. A slow moving area of low
pressure and cold front then impact the region Thursday through
Sunday. High pressure builds in for Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warmer and more humid for the first full day of astronomical autumn.
Offshore high pressure ridge begins to shift east and loosen its
control as a northern branch shortwave clips New England, sending a
surface cold front toward the area through the day.
Abundant Gulf moisture streams in with deep layer SW flow developing
and PWATs climbing above 1.5 inches. Given the warm, moist flow,
temperatures nudge upwards compared to previous days, with afternoon
highs into the low to mid 80s for urban NE NJ and the NYC metro, and
upper 70s to near 80 elsewhere, or 5 to 10 degrees above normal. It
will also be noticeably more humid with the moist air mass in place,
and dew pts increase from the 50s on Monday into the mid to upper
60s by the afternoon.
Pre frontal trough ahead of the frontal boundary should help to
instigate scattered convection by the afternoon over Upstate NY,
working east into the region into the evening. Soundings indicate
modest instability developing NW of NYC into the afternoon, and with
the increased dew pts and around 20 kt of bulk unidirectional shear,
could support the development of a few thunderstorms. While severe
weather isn`t anticipated, can`t rule out an isolated stronger
storm producing a few strong wind gusts. And even with such dry
antecedent conditions, locally heavy downpours could result in
brief nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. The
activity should weaken as it works east, but a few heavy
downpours or remnant rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out for
coastal areas either into this evening. Overall, QPF is expected
to be light, perhaps a general quarter inch NW of NYC, with
less along the coast. Possible some locales, especially east
onto Long Island, remain entirely dry through the period.
The front attempts to push through Wednesday morning, but weakens
and stalls nearby into Wednesday morning. A few showers could linger
overnight, especially across S CT. Patchy areas of fog could develop
as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions remain unsettled mid to late week.
The cold front that attempts to move through early Wednesday
stalls nearby and weakens. A few lingering showers possible in
the morning, but coverage looks limited, with best chances to
the north and east. Then into the afternoon, ahead of broad
troughing over the Central US, an associated frontal wave of
low pressure tracks through the Midwest into western Upstate
NY, with a warm front extending east toward the local region.
As it lifts north, this introduces a more widespread rainfall
by Wednesday evening or night with the isentropic lift and
increased low level convergence. The rain chances persist
through Thursday as an attendant cold front approaches from the
west, moving through Thursday night or early Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NBM was followed with no changes.
Key Points:
* A slow moving area of low pressure, and cold front, is expected to
  impact the region Friday through Sunday.
* Chances of showers persist through much of the period with a
  threat of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Timing and
  coverage of rainfall remains uncertain.
* Drier conditions expected Sunday into Monday as high pressure
  builds back into the region.
* Daytime temperatures will be near to slightly above normal Friday
  through Monday, with highs in the 70s. Nighttime lows will be
  above normal Friday night and Saturday night, and return to more
  normal levels Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Offshore high pressure gives way to a pre-frontal trough late this
afternoon and Tuesday night. A cold front from the north moves into
the region late Tuesday night and become stationary across the area.
Mainly VFR through late in the day, except for the possibility of
MVFR ceilings, especially across northeastern New Jersey, during the
morning push. MVFR also possible with any showers and thunderstorms
later in the day and Tuesday night.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening,
with the higher chances during the evening, with a chance remaining
into Tuesday night.
SW winds under 10kt continue through Tuesday evening, except winds
increase to around 10kt late morning through afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TEMPO MVFR cigs during the morning push might not occur, but also a
chance that they could prevail for a few hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late Tuesday night: Generally VFR, a chance of MVFR with showers.
Wednesday through Saturday: Periods of MVFR with showers possible.
Isold tstms possible at times.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continues on coastal ocean waters
given seas near 5 ft with long period SE swells associated with
distant Hurricane Gabrielle. These elevated seas persist through
at least Wednesday afternoon before lowering.
Winds and seas then remain below SCA levels across the forecast
waters Friday through Saturday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front this afternoon
and evening could produce locally heavy downpours that result in
brief nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage locales, mainly
across northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and
southwest Connecticut. Antecedent conditions have been notably
dry though, and the risk for flash flooding is low.
Additional rainfall is likely Wednesday night through Thursday
night, though this does not appear to warrant flood concerns more
than the possibility of localized minor issues.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip current development through
Wednesday at the ocean beaches as a long period 4-5 ft SE swell
arrives from distant Hurricane Gabrielle.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion