Keota, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

274
FXUS64 KTSA 051738
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- A strong cold front continues to move through the region today
with a large temperature gradient across the front. Scattered
showers and storms will persist across the area through tonight,
eventually becoming confined to the south and east into Saturday.
- A storm or two may become strong to severe across SE OK and W-
Central AR this evening and early tonight. Strong to damaging wind
gusts and hail are the primary hazards.
- Clearing and drying conditions from the north to south Saturday,
with temperatures well below normal this weekend. Warmer and dry
conditions are favored next week, with only a slight chance of rain
in parts of NE OK on Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A potent cold front was observed moving through the region late this
morning/ early afternoon with isolated to scattered showers/
thunderstorms overrunning much of the CWA. Strong cold and dry air
advection is noted behind the front and a large temperature gradient
is likely this afternoon as it slows in SE OK. Highs will remain in
the lower 70s across the northernmost areas where precip chances are
highest today, while high temps near the Red River may still climb
into the lower 90s. Precip may wane slightly this afternoon before
additional development occurs along and behind the front as a
shortwave passes overhead this evening/ tonight. Latest CAMs suggest
a cluster of thunderstorms move over SE OK and W-Central AR this
evening and early tonight with more scattered precip across the
remainder of the area. A strong to severe storm or two will be
possible, primarily within a band of moderate instability across SE
OK and W-Central AR... with the environment supporting damaging
winds and hail as the primary hazards. However, widespread severe
weather is not expected. Precip chances gradually decrease from
northwest to southeast late tonight into Saturday as the system
departs. Gusty NNE winds between 20-35 mph this afternoon will also
diminish during the overnight period. Lows fall into the 50s for
much of NE OK and NW AR while SE OK remains in the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Low rain/ thunder chances linger across southern portions of the FA
tomorrow before drier conditions set in for the remainder of the
weekend with post frontal high pressure. Guidance continues to
suggest potential for a subtle wave within the NW flow to impact the
region Tuesday. Will maintain low rain chances during this period,
mainly across portions of NE OK, with dry conditions more likely
elsewhere. By midweek and beyond, upper level ridging builds into
the region bringing warmer and predominantly dry conditions through
the end of the forecast period. High temps are forecast to be held
in the mid-upper 70s tomorrow before increasing back into the lower
80s for early next week. Temperatures return back to near seasonal
normals Wednesday through Friday... generally in the upper 80s or
lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue through the
afternoon however aviation impacts will likely be brief as
ceilings generally remain VFR. Storms will become more likely
across SE OK and west central AR this evening w/ a chance of
flight impacts. A corridor of lower ceilings are forecast north of
the frontal zone by early Saturday morning with a clearing trend
from north to south through the day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  57  81 /  50   0   0   0
FSM   62  81  61  84 /  50  20   0   0
MLC   59  78  60  82 /  40  20  10  10
BVO   50  77  52  80 /  40   0   0   0
FYV   54  78  52  82 /  60  20   0   0
BYV   54  78  51  81 /  60  20   0   0
MKO   58  78  58  81 /  40  20   0   0
MIO   52  78  52  80 /  50   0   0   0
F10   55  77  56  79 /  30  20   0  10
HHW   62  78  63  80 /  60  30  10  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion