Kerby Field, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

789
FXUS63 KDTX 121015
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
615 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog, some dense, this morning especially the
  Thumb/Saginaw Valley.
- Dry and warm again today with highs around 80.
- Chance of scattered showers and an isolated embedded thunderstorm
  Saturday morning through late afternoon.
- Much above normal highs with continuing dry weather Sunday through
  midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of fog and low stratus across the region will lift through
late morning as daytime heating takes hold. This yields widespread
VFR conditions for the afternoon period, with a broad coverage of
high based diurnal cu. Dry and stable low level conditions ensures
continued VFR conditions again tonight. Signal for fog development
not nearly as high tonight, likely owing to a slightly higher
gradient with a flow no longer off the warm lake waters. This
precludes a mention at any terminal at this stage.
For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms through Friday.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
DISCUSSION...
Light easterly flow off Lake Huron has supported a robust fog
response across much of the Thumb/Saginaw Valley last night with
development much patchier for the rest of SE MI. Areas of fog burn
off this morning as the region still holds under the influence of
high pressure now centering over southwestern Ontario. Largely a
persistence forecast today as a result with winds remaining very
light now out of a generally southerly direction (ranging SW to SE)
with skies turning partly cloudy from diurnal cumulus. Ridge axis
shift to our east and the subsequent wind shift sets up very modest
WAA (850mb temps nudge up 1-2C) supporting slightly warmer highs
compared to Thursday with most areas likely reaching around 80 if
not lower 80s. Cooler night (lows in the 50s) in store again tonight
as skies clear over very light to nonexistent winds leading to
efficient radiative cooling.
Central CONUS ridging amplifies tonight/Saturday as a weak shortwave
rides over top towards the western Great Lakes. Bulk of model
guidance continues to advertise this wave diving southeast across
southern Lake Michigan into northern IN/far southwestern MI Saturday
morning. With nocturnal low level jet forcing over the upper
Mississippi not keeping pace to the associated cluster of
showers/storms, this convection begins to decay while crossing the
state. Additionally the majority of rain holds to out southwest
given the shortwave track. End result locally is a lower end chance
(20-30%) Saturday morning thru late afternoon for scattered showers
and isolated embedded thunder.
Otherwise extended period of dry, seasonably hot weather continues
next week as an omega block forms across the CONUS with the ridge
focused over the Midwest/Great Lakes. Highs Sunday through
potentially Thursday top out in the mid to upper 80s, a solid 10+
degrees above mid-September normals. Cooler overnight lows in the
50s also look to persist during this timeframe thanks to high
pressure promoting clear night skies and light winds.
MARINE...
Patchy fog that developed near the shoreline early this morning will
begin to mix out after sunrise. Dry conditions and gradually veering
wind profiles then characterize most of the daytime hours as high
pressure drifts toward New England. Hudson Bay low pressure carves
into the eastern Great Lakes this weekend, sending an upper level
disturbance into Lake Huron Saturday followed by a cold front
Saturday night. Both features generate low coverage/low impact
shower potential as they struggle to access moisture. A second high
pressure center over Ontario expands back into the Great Lakes
Sunday and persists through early next week marking the return of
dry weather and continuing the stretch of favorable marine
conditions.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......MV
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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion