Kerhonkson New York Weather Forecast Discussion

251
FXUS61 KALY 062329
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
729 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions through tomorrow morning. A weather system
arrives tomorrow afternoon bringing rainfall to eastern New York
and western New England through early Wednesday morning. Behind
the front, another period of dry but more seasonable weather is
in store for the rest of the week and at least into the first
half of next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:
- Widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
     bringing rainfall amounts between 0.5 to 1 inch.
Discussion:
Surface high pressure continues to head east today with dry
conditions through early tomorrow morning. Low temperatures
tonight range in the 50s. A surface low pressure system moves
from the Great Lakes region through the Northeast tomorrow
afternoon into Wednesday morning bringing widespread rainfall to
eastern New York and western New England through the overnight
hours Tuesday. For tomorrow afternoon between noon and 6 PM
across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, a rumble of
thunder could occur as conditions for non- severe thunderstorm
are present for this rumble of thunder. As the sun sets earlier,
conditions for thunder into the overnight hours diminishes and
just a steady to moderate rainfall is in store. Otherwise,
rainfall quickly heads east Wednesday morning and ends between 8
AM and noon. Rainfall amounts are still on track for them to
range between 0.5 and 1 inches as forecast confidence continues
to be high for this range as probabilities are greater than 75
percent. By Wednesday afternoon, dry conditions return with
surface high pressure building back in. A cold front moves
through Wednesday morning bringing relief from the above normal
temperatures with high temperatures returning to near normal
ranging in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:
- Seasonal temperatures continue through this weekend.
Discussion:
Dry conditions continue through Saturday under surface high
pressure. High temperatures range in the 50s and 60s. Low
temperatures Thursday night into Friday range in the upper 20s
in higher terrain locations and in the mid-30s in the valleys.
With clear skies and cold temperatures, frost conditions are
favored for all of eastern New York and western New England.
However, winds could increase by Friday morning which helps
limit frost conditions in valley locations. For Sunday, ensemble
forecast model guidances are in good agreement for a coastal low
to develop. But, there is disagreement in the placement of the
low as if it stays off the coast, we`ll stay mostly dry. If it
heads northeast on shore, we`ll see light rain for Sunday. Kept
the trend going with the latest National Blend of Models data
with slight chances to chances (15-30%) for precipitation for
locations south and east of Albany.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions initially with this TAF
period as high pressure departs the region to the southeast.
Attention then turns to the early morning Tuesday as
strengthening southerly flow in the low levels brings increasing
moisture to the region. Fcst soundings remain consistent in
development of a SCT low stratus deck generally around 300-700
ft AGL for all terminals. Highest confidence on this remains at
KGFL/KPSF, though confidence in seeing low clouds has increased
at KALB/KPOU. Brief periods of IFR/LIFR ceilings may occur as a
result of the development of the low stratus, which has been
addressed in TEMPO groups at all terminals. This stratus will
decrease through the morning Tuesday, resulting in a return to
VFR conditions. Additionally, south winds will increase as a
result of strengthening low-level mixing to around 10 kts
sustained with gusts around 15-20 kts. As a cold front
approaches from the west late in the TAF period, chances of rain
showers will increase mainly at KGFL/KALB, which has been
addressed in PROB30 groups with a potential for MVFR conditions.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Wide Spread FROST.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures(Year Set):
Monday October 6:
Albany: 90(1900)
Glens Falls: 85(1910)
Poughkeepsie: 86(2007)
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05/33
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...17
CLIMATE...07

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion