Ketcham Lake Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

037
FXUS63 KARX 151932
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
232 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of rain continue through Friday night.
- Mild temps return for Thu into Sat with 70+ degrees currently
looking likely for Friday (warmest day of the week).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
> OVERVIEW; broken record I know, but not a lot of change via the
GEFS and EPS over the past 5+ days with depicting a progressive
upper flow through the rest of the week, likely persisting well into
next week. A ridge comes in a for a couple days, then a trough, then
ridge...adnauseam. All WPC clusters ride the same train but they
start to stray from each other moving into the new work week. Some
are completely out of phase with one another - highlighting timing
differences within the long term guidance. Confidence and
predictability lower in this time frame as a result.
Bottom-line remains the same though - periodic rain chances with
some up and down in temps every few days, but still hovering near to
above the mid October normals.
> THROUGH THE WEEKEND: on and off rain chances. Mild Thu-Sat with
Friday shaping up to be the warmest of the bunch.
Bands of light showers persisting across IA at early afternoon -
associated with weak perturbations and low/mid level Fgen. The light
showers will gradually shift northeast across the local forecast
area through the afternoon and tonight as the main forcing
mechanisms take that track.
This Fgen region takes a more north-south orientation over eastern
WI on Thu as an upper level shortwave ridge sharpens just to the
west. Also westward and under the ridge, low level moisture
transport/convergence with favorable thermodynamic lift should
result in more showers developing across southern MN/northern IA
by 12z, spreading into western WI through the morning and
afternoon. Again, forcing is weak but the airmass remains
anomalously moist. PW anomalies still 2+ in the NAEFS and EC
with the RAP suggesting as much as 1.5". QPF in the meso models
generally paints 1/10 to 1/3". That said, there were a lot of
1/2+" totals from the rain of yesterday/overnight - which were
more high end outliers in the meso models. So, models could be
too low for its QPF (and rain chances on the whole) as a result
of the weak forcing. These next rounds of rain/drizzle look to
exit east overnight Thu.
Not a big break from the rain chances though as an upper trough with
accompanying cold front will be moving in from the northern plains
Friday. Stronger lift interacts with a ribbon of moisture transport
in the evening/night time hours - and medium range guidance
currently favors this period for the higher rain chances/qpf.
Further expansion in areal coverage and intensity likely as another
shortwave barrels northeast out of the southern plains Saturday.
However, the front is likely already east of the local forecast
area, holding the brunt of this interaction east.
As for temps, the region gets under southerly flow for the next few
days - with 850 mb temps climbing from around 8 C at 12z this
morning to as much as 15 C by 12z Fri. GEFS and EPS a bit warmer for
highs Fri compared to previous days with the upper 75% of their
members painting highs for 70+ degrees for most of the forecast
area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Low-level moisture will keep cigs at IFR to MVFR heights
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the overnight.
With some fairly robust low-level saturation in the RAP/HRRR
throughout much of the period, any weak lift may result in a
period of mist/drizzle across the region resulting in occasional
vsby drops to MVFR levels. Otherwise, cigs will marginally
improve to MVFR/low-VFR after daybreak on Thursday as low-level
moisture begins to lift northeastward. However, this will likely
(60-80% chance) be accompanied by a period of showers during
the morning which may result in some MVFR vsby reductions. Winds
will remain at around 5- 10 kts into the overnight from the
east before shifting southeasterly and increasing to around
10-15 kts after daybreak on Thursday.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Naylor

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion