Keystone College Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

583
FXUS61 KBGM 151049
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
649 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build into the region for the
remainder of the week. A cold frontal boundary with our next
chance of showers then moves through Sunday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cooler and drier airmass will enter after the passage of a cold
front this morning. Any morning fog and clouds should clear out
fairly quickly today as a result. High temperatures also look a
few degrees cooler compared to yesterday thanks to the cold
frontal passage. Modeled soundings do show the potential for
some 20 mph or so wind gusts to be transported to the surface
this afternoon as well.
Clear skies tonight as high pressure builds in. However, just enough
wind should prevent an ideal radiational cooling setup. Another
night in the 30`s though and we will have to watch for patchy
frost where the growing season continues in the Finger Lakes
and Wyoming Valley. Thursday looks similar to today with the
potential for some higher afternoon wind gusts. Highs should
stay in the 50`s for most of the region. Model soundings suggest
quite a bit of mixing as well which could lower Rh values into
the 30-40% range during the afternoon hours. So, the possibility
of favorable conditions for fire spread is present.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday night looks the coldest as winds become light allowing
most places to fall to around 30. As a result, the potential
for a more widespread frost and possible freeze increases for
the Finger Lakes and Wyoming valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow warming trend should occur for Friday through Sunday as winds
switch to southwest on the backside of a high pressure system. Still
some timing differences with ensemble guidance on the next cold
front and shower chance in the Sunday and Monday timeframe. After
that, several disturbances along with Laker Ontario moisture should
keep a few showers around into the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Winds have started to increase in the wake of a cold frontal
passage early this morning, and breezy northwest winds will be
in place through the afternoon with frequent gusts of 15 to 20
knots before easing this evening. The increase in wind at the
surface has led to most of the fog dissipating, but ceiling
restrictions are expected to remain through mid-to-late morning
at most terminals before becoming VFR as high pressure builds
in. Areas of fog and associated restrictions are expected to
form later tonight, mainly around ELM.
Outlook...
Late Wednesday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of
valley fog each morning.
Sunday...Restrictions possible with a front moving through,
especially later in the day and at night.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...DK

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion