Kilgore, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

734
FXUS61 KRLX 121032
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
632 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to keep the region dry for the
foreseeable future. Temperatures will be on the upswing into
next week with a warming trend in place.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 137 AM Friday...
High pressure remains overhead today and tonight. Valley fog is
expected this morning and could dense in spots. Any fog will
yield to the persistent trend of dry weather and mostly clear
skies upon its dissipation later this morning. Lowered dew
points this afternoon after a review of obs today. Did not trend
as low as the HRRR and the HREF due to lack of wind expected
today; NNE flow is expected to be light, remaining between 5-10
mph at the max. Humidity values will be in the 30s across much
of the area this afternoon with a few locations dropping into
the upper 20s. That said, conditions will be dry enough to
increase risk for wildfire start, however winds will be light
enough to prevent significant spread so headlines are not
warranted at this time.
High temperatures will be around to a few degrees above normal
this afternoon:
Lowlands- upper 70s to mid 80s
Mountains- upper 60s to low 80s
Clear and cool again tonight with subsidence causing strong radiational
cooling once more. This will likely lead to another round of valley
fog later tonight into Saturday morning. RH values will recover
overnight due to the expected cooler temperatures. Low temperatures
will be a few degrees below normal tonight with the forecast
area dropping into the upper 40s to the mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 317 AM Friday...
Quiet weather is in store for the weekend as dry weather
continues due to high pressure overhead. Temperatures will be
very warm to hot each afternoon with cool, yet seasonable
overnight lows in the 50s. Relative humidity values will be
rather dry in the upper 20s and 30s Saturday and Sunday
afternoons as highs reach the upper 80s to around 90 across the
lowlands. Winds will remain light enough to mitigate
substantial risk for fire weather.
A weak disturbance looks to move through late Sunday, but
surface high pressure will be strong enough that chances for
precipitation will remain non existent (less than 15%). Passing
clouds will be the most likely outcome with this feature.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 323 AM Friday...
Stout ridge pattern continues its rule with the ad nauseam
scheme of dry weather and a warming trend in play for basically
ninety-nine percent of the long term period. The sliver of
percentage remaining, accounts for a disturbance that will
develop to our southeast by mid week, but this system will only
introduce slight chances(15-20%) for precipitation across our
eastern mountains, particularly the lee side, Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons. At this point in time, confidence is low
for any beneficial rainfall manifesting this week.
Temperatures are nearly identical each day next week with the
lowlands achieving mid to upper 80s as highs each afternoon with
lower 90s being possible Monday and Tuesday. The mountains will
range anywhere in the upper 60s to the lower 80s. Low temperatures
will be in the 50s to the lower 60s each night, which is near
to a few degrees above normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 625 AM Friday...
MVFR and IFR restrictions are being reported at a few sites
this morning with river valley fog. VFR resumes by ~14z once
any fog dissipates. Winds will be calm early this morning, then
light and variable later this morning into the afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipation and VFR returning
at sites may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions or lower are possible in valley fog each morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion