Kill Buck, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

764
FXUS61 KBUF 022207
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
607 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry weather through the upcoming
weekend. There will be a day-to-day warming trend with well above
normal temperatures by this weekend. The next chance of rain will
not arrive until Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front crosses the
eastern Great Lakes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over Quebec will drift southward across southern New
England through Friday, while maintaining dry conditions across the
lower Great Lakes region and Northeast.
It will not be as chilly tonight with seasonably cool overnight
lows, and maybe a bit of patchy frost and fog across portions of
Lewis County and the deepest valleys of the Southern Tier. Dry and
mostly sunny weather continues Friday with highs in the mid to upper
70s for most areas, and lower 70s east of Lake Ontario.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will strengthen over the Northeast while
surface high pressure resides across the Mid-Atlantic region this
weekend. Warm air advection and strong subsidence will result in
warm weather. Daytime highs are expected to reach the upper 70s to
low 80s, possibly even reaching the mid 80s Sunday. Dry weather will
continue across the forecast area through the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Confidence continues to increase regarding the arrival of rain
showers across western and north-central NY in the middle of next
week. An upper level trough will dig into the Northern Plains
Monday, while a strong upper level ridge moves off the east coast.
Warm and dry weather is expected to continue Monday. A coastal low
along the Gulf Coast states will then approach a cold front across
the Mid-West and Ohio Valley. The combination of forcing and Gulf
moisture will bring medium to high probabilities of measurable rain
to the forecast area during the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. There
remains uncertainty in the temporal and spatial details of the
rain.
Regarding temperatures, the work week will start out well above
normal, with daytime highs slowly decreasing throughout the week.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expansive high pressure will continue to drift gradually south
across southern New England tonight through Friday with just some
passing high cirrus at times.
Patchy river valley fog and local IFR is expected across the
Southern Tier late tonight through Friday morning, mainly east of
KJHW. Some patchy fog is also possible east of Lake Ontario in the
Black River valley.
Outlook...
Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and localized IFR
possible each late night through the morning hours.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Northeast winds will continue to produce some chop on Lake Ontario
and Lake Erie through this evening. Winds will then swing around to
the SSW overnight with a light to moderate chop continuing.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will continue through this weekend.
This will produce no more than mainly light chop at times as high
pressure remains anchored across the lower Great Lakes and New
England, however flow will be predominantly offshore through the
period, with much of the wave action directed into our open lake
waters and Canadian waters.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/JM/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion