Kincaid Park, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

890
FXAK68 PAFC 050004
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 PM AKDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A warm front that moved up into the Gulf this morning is now
beginning to slow down and stall out as it approaches the Gulf
Coast this afternoon. Easterly winds up to gale force are
developing out ahead of the front, with the strongest winds
currently centered over the Barren Islands. A shield of moderate
rainfall moving out ahead of the front has now spread into the
Prince William Sound region, while steady rain that fell earlier
today across the Cook Inlet and Mat Valley region is tapering off
for now in the wake of a subtle shortwave passage. Gap winds that
were strong, erratic and gusty across the Mat Valley and much of
Anchorage earlier today are weakening and turning northerly as a
down-inlet pressure gradient develops north of the front stretched
across the Gulf. However, southeast winds gusting up to around 50
mph or so across the Anchorage Hillside are set to continue well
into tonight.
The outlook for the rest of the weekend will continue the same
theme of moderate, steady rain along the coast and more
intermittent rainfall for interior valleys with passing
shortwaves lifting up between a deepening trough out west and a
strong upper ridge over the eastern Gulf. By Sunday night, a more
potent, negatively-tilted shortwave will lift up past Kodiak
Island into the Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf. This will send
a pulse of more intense rainfall across much of Southcentral as it
lifts north through Monday morning. The heaviest rainfall amounts
with this next round will still be focused where southerly flow
upslopes into terrain, especially near Prince William Sound.
Models diverge in terms of how quickly the trough progresses
northeast on Monday as the upper level pattern becomes notably
more complex. However, the progression is consistent enough to say
with confidence that winds will become westerly (as strong as
gale force) over the Gulf as more steady rainfall tapers off to
showers across most of Southcentral through Monday evening.
For Tuesday, a strong upper ridge is expected to build back
overhead as the system moving through for Monday exits into the
Yukon and Southeast. Things should dry back out for the most part
as well, except across the Talkeetnas and near Broad Pass where
moisture streaming in along an atmospheric river extending from
the Bering into the Interior wrings out moisture via upslope flow.
Following a brief cool down on Monday, temperatures will also
begin to trend warmer once again.
-AS
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...
A fast-moving low crosses the Aleutians into Bristol Bay just
east of King Cove this evening bringing continued rain and strong
winds through tomorrow afternoon. High pressure builds in the
North Pacific and a Kamchatka low moves eastward this upcoming
week causing persistent southwest wind flow, heavy rain and
coastal impacts for the entire region; especially coastal
Mainland.
Overnight, a 992 mb low currently south of Unalaska moves over
the Aleutians just west of Cold Bay and crosses into Bristol Bay
late tomorrow morning before moving onshore tomorrow afternoon
near Dillingham. Northwesterly wind speeds through the gaps and
passes of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula increase
during this time frame ranging from 35 to 45 knots. Winds begin to
decrease tomorrow afternoon as a weak ridge builds into the area.
A Kamchatka low moves eastward through the Bering Sea early next
week. Also, a 1038 mb high in the North Pacific Monday evening
builds to 1040 mb by Tuesday morning staying fairly stationary
through mid- week. This will bring persistent southwesterly flow
around its northern periphery; primarily from Adak northeastward
to Nunivak Island Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Integrated
Water Vapor Transport (IVT) shows this flow will tap into tropical
moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture, referred to as an
Atmospheric River, will bring heavy rain, from points east of
Adak to the Mainland Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Southwesterly wind gusts associated with this stream of moisture
will result in widespread gale to storm force winds in the Bering
Sea. Of note, this prolonged period of southwesterly flow could
cause impacts to coastal areas of the Mainland; from Kipnuk to
Quinhagak next Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...
High pressure will dominate south central Alaska through the end
of the work week. By next weekend, a weakening front stretching
across the western half of the state, will help develop low
pressure that will bring rains back into the region. While still a
week out, precipitation type will be something to watch.
Termination Dust should continue it`s descent down the mountains.
At this time, most of lower elevation should remain rain.
Temperatures are definitely cooling, so this aspect will need a
keen eye to remain on it.
Out west... low pressure in the western Bering will sling a front
across the Aleutians through Friday. This weather system will have
a deep tap of moisture (roughly 40N) and should bring abundant
precipitation to the Aleutians and west coast into the weekend.
The deep southerly flow will rebound temperatures. Upper level
high pressure over the state will help to deflect any approaching
western Pacific system from impacting the coast. Friday and into
the weekend, in what looks like a rinse and repeat of the current
weather system, another WNPac low will ride the ridge north into
the western Bering. Another front is expected to drive east across
the Aleutian Chain and AKPen into Sunday. Continued unseasonably
warm and wet weather will continue through the extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...The main challenge will continue to be the winds, both at
the immediate surface and for low level wind shear. By late this
afternoon, the surface winds should with to a northerly direction
as opposed to the southeasterly winds that varied wildly in speed
earlier in the day. While the surface winds will be northerly,
the winds aloft will remain from the east-to-southeast 20 to 30
kt. The level this wind switch occurs will range anywhere between
500 and 2500 ft above the surface so we are expecting the low
level wind shear to continue into Sunday.
Periods of light rain will occur through the night and into
Sunday morning. VFR conditions are expected to persist in spite
of the rain, though the ceiling heights could drop into the 3500
ft to 5000 ft range anytime through Sunday afternoon.
&&
$$

NWS AFC Office Area Forecast Discussion