Kingman, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

502
FXUS65 KVEF 171724
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1024 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Seasonably warm and dry conditions will persist today.
* Increasing moisture associated with the remnants of Mario will
  move into the region Thursday through Friday, bringing chances for
  showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain and high rainfall
  rates will lead to an increased risk of flash flooding.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday. The tropical moisture is knocking on
our southern door. Satellite loop showed cirrus outflow from the
remnants of Mario nearing our southern CWA border, and surface obs
showed dewpoints up 10-20F in the past 24 hours at sites including
KDAG, KNXP, and KBLH. On a positive note, recent model runs show
very little change from 24 hours ago with respect to precipitation
timing as well as the most probable amounts (25th to 75th percentile
range), which increases forecast confidence. That said, there is
still significant uncertainty in one very important regard - will
there be enough sunshine in between the clouds Thursday and/or
Friday to allow for destabilization and intense rainfall rates, or
will solidly overcast skies prevent instability from being realized,
resulting in less-hazardous stratiform rain? Because of that
uncertainty, will not issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time. Best
guess is that the best heavy rain potential will be along and west
of Highway 95 Thursday and Thursday night. Best forcing exits by
Friday night, leaving more of a low-grade monsoon pattern in place
for Saturday and possibly Sunday. Not much confidence in Monday or
Tuesday, but the overall pattern favors mostly dry weather with
temperatures climbing back above normal for late September.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
and diurnal winds with speeds of less than 10 knots are expected
through the rest of the day. Cannot rule out a stray gust to 15 kts
this afternoon from the east. Winds will become southwesterly
overnight, returning to the east-northeast Thursday morning. FEW-SCT
aoa 25 kft through the day today, increasing to BKN-OVC overnight.
SCT-BKN aoa 12 kft push into southern Nevada after sunset and
persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Best chances of 98-
100 degrees this afternoon exist between 23 and 01Z.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light and diurnal
winds are expected today, with speeds generally less than 10
knots. The exception will be KDAG, where gusty west winds between
20 and 25 kts will pick up after sunset and last through the
night. BKN- OVC high clouds will increase south-to-north across
the region today, with SCT-BKN mid-level clouds reaching KDAG,
KBIH, KEED, and KIFP this afternoon and KLAS, KVGT, KHND this
evening. Precipitation chances increase areawide on Thursday with
convection beginning as early as 15Z. Heavy downpours and strong
outflow winds are the main concerns.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Meltzer
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion