Kingston, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

802
FXUS64 KEPZ 091127
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
527 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1008 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- Temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees above average through the
  end of the week.
- Tuesday and Wednesday will be mainly dry, just a slight chance
  for thunderstorms in area mountains.
- Moisture returns Thursday and beyond for chances of isolated
  thunderstorms focused west of the Divide initially then pushing
  east into the Rio Grande Valley by Friday into Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1008 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Upper level high pressure will continue to control our weather
tonight and into Tuesday. That will keep us mainly dry and help
afternoon high temperatures run 5 to 7 degrees above average.
There may be just enough moisture for a few short lived showers
and thunderstorms in the mountains, but they won`t last long or
produce much rain. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge will set up
home for a few days over west Texas, while at the same time an
upper level trough will be coming into the west coast of
California. The circulation around these two features will pull up
a narrow ribbon of moisture from the south. On Wednesday, the
narrow moisture plume will be centered over far eastern Arizona.
We may see a few storms develop right along the New Mexico and
Arizona border. The rest of the area will stay dry, with high
temperatures still running around 5 degrees above average. By
Thursday, the narrow ribbon of moisture will push a little east
and that will be enough to help fuel some thunderstorms mainly
east of the Continental Divide. But like Wednesday, most of the
region will stay high and dry with high temperatures still running
around 5 degrees above average.
By Friday the ribbon of moisture will slowly push a little further
east to central New Mexico. This moisture plume is not very
strong, so I`m not expecting a whole lot of thunderstorm activity,
but hey, any rain we can get is a good thing. For Saturday and
Sunday the narrow plume of moisture will be over the eastern part
of the area, mainly east of the Rio Grande, which will lead to
isolated to scattered thunderstorms both afternoons. By next
Monday, the upper level ridge to our east will push back west
some, while the upper level trough to our west deepens a little
further. This will push the moisture plume back west of the Rio
Grande and with the dynamics of the upper level trough to our
west, a few storms may be strong. Temperature for this coming
weekend into the start of next week, look to continue to run a few
degrees above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VMC through forecast period under light west flow aloft. Skies
mostly FEW-SCT110 today with afternoon cumulus and minimal TS
activity. Surface winds generally 190-230 at 04-08 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Low fire danger with near normal ERCs and forest moisture. Mostly
dry weather pattern in place, with very limited rain chances
through Wednesday. Min RH 20-30% today with 20-ft winds out of
the southwest 5 to 10 mph. Very Good ventilation this afternoon
with transport to the NE.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms across western NM and GNF
Thursday/Friday, which could cause gusty winds and lightning
starts. Rain chances increase for LNF and Sacramento Mtns again
next weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  98  73  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            91  62  92  60 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               94  66  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               94  68  94  67 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               71  51  71  49 /  10   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    92  67  92  67 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              86  62  86  62 /  10  10  10  10
Deming                   97  66  96  66 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                93  68  93  67 /  10  10  10  10
West El Paso Metro       96  73  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                95  65  94  62 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             97  69  97  69 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               88  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   96  69  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             94  69  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           95  69  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            93  66  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    96  66  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 96  68  96  68 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                93  65  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  82  55  82  53 /  20  10  10   0
Mescalero                83  56  83  54 /  10   0  10   0
Timberon                 80  54  81  52 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  84  56  84  55 /  10  10  10  10
Hillsboro                93  63  92  62 /  10  10   0  10
Spaceport                93  64  92  64 /   0  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             87  57  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
Hurley                   90  62  89  62 /  10  10  10  10
Cliff                    93  65  93  65 /  10  10  10  10
Mule Creek               89  61  89  60 /  10  10  10  10
Faywood                  90  65  89  63 /  10  10  10  10
Animas                   93  67  93  66 /  10  10  10  10
Hachita                  93  66  93  65 /  10  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           93  66  92  64 /  10   0  10  10
Cloverdale               88  65  87  62 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion